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AUD/USD Rises Post-FOMC as Australian Trade Data Approaches

Posted: 13 Nov 2021 01:50 AM PST



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Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, AU Trade Balance, Oil prices – Talking Points

  • Australian trade data in focus for today's Asia-Pacific session
  • Oil prices are moving lower after EIA shows big inventory build
  • AUD/USD aims higher as price grapples with the 20-day SMA

Thursday's Asia-Pacific Forecast

The Australian Dollar is in focus for today's Asia-Pacific trading session, with Australia set to report trade data for September. Analysts expect the figure to cross the wires at A$12.2 billion at 00:30 GMT. That would be down from the A$15.07 billion in August when an energy crunch caused by surging natural gas prices in Europe and Asia helped drive coal exports. Those prices remained elevated in September, which leaves the data print open to a possible outsized beat or miss.

Traders ditched the US Dollar overnight despite the Federal Reserve announcing balance sheet growth tapering. The Fed said it would begin to roll back asset purchases later this month at the monthly pace of $15 billion, which consists of $10 billion in Treasuries and $5 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The US Dollar DXY index moved lower despite a modest move higher in 2- and 5-year Treasury yields.

Today will bring foreign bond investment data out of Japan for the week ending October 30. Final Japanese PMI readings for October will cross the wires later in the day. However, APAC traders will work on digesting the Federal Reserve decision. However, a modest risk-on move appears to be kicking off today's session, which is likely to continue outside of any unseen event risks.

Elsewhere, oil prices are on the move lower after an overnight drop. Crude and Brent oil benchmarks accelerated to the downside after US government data showed a larger-than-expected inventory build. The weekly Energy Information Administration (EIA) report for the week ending October 29 showed a 3.29 million barrel build. That was well above the 2.22 million barrel increase analysts expected.

AUD/USD Technical Forecast

AUD/USD pivoted higher overnight after prices tested the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the September/October move. Prices are currently grappling with the rising 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), with the 23.6% Fibonacci directly overhead. MACD weakness is moderating alongside a rising RSI reading, which suggests upside momentum may be strengthening. A break above the 20-day SMA and 23.6% Fib may open the door for a test of the October swing high at 0.7556.

AUD/USD 8-Hour Chart

audusd chart

Chart created with TradingView

— Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Thomas, use the comments section below or @FxWestwateron Twitter




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Posted: 13 Nov 2021 01:21 AM PST




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AUD/USD Eyes RBA Monetary Policy Statement

Posted: 13 Nov 2021 12:48 AM PST



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Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, RBA, Oil Prices Talking Points

  • Australian Dollar eyes RBA monetary policy statement
  • Oil prices continue to drop after OPEC stays on course
  • AUD/USD may target 50-day SMA if weakness persists

Friday's Asia-Pacific Forecast

Asia-Pacific markets are set to move higher after a rosy Wall Street session overnight. The benchmark S&P 500 index closed 0.42% higher following an upbeat jobless claims report. The US Dollar softened via the DXY index despite a drop in the rate-sensitive 5-year Treasury yield. A surprise decision from the Bank of England (BOE) played into an already weakened outlook on near-term Federal Reserve tightening.

The risk-sensitive Australian Dollar saw a big drop versus the Greenback overnight, notwithstanding the broader USD strength – which was primarily due to Sterling weakness. Yesterday, Australia saw its trade surplus widen more than expected for September, although exports dropped 6% on a month-over-month basis. A drop in iron ore prices during the reference period likely weighed on outgoing cross-border transactions.

The Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy statement will cross the wires today, which will provide updated quarterly economic projections. Earlier this week, the central bank signaled that its record low interest rate may not be on hold until 2024, as previously communicated. Rising price pressures and the removal of Covid restrictions likely encouraged policy makers to shift the cash rate target forward. However, that still leaves the RBA behind other major central banks.

Elsewhere, oil prices continue to slide. Crude oil broke below the psychologically imposing 80 handle, while Brent – the global benchmark – slipped as well. OPEC and its allies opted to keep pace with its current tapering of output cuts at 400k barrels per day for December. That comes despite calls from the United States to push more supply onto markets.

AUD/USD Technical Forecast

AUD/USD fell below its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement overnight, but weakness eased prior to hitting the rising 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). That said, the Fib level may now serve as resistance as the Aussie Dollar catches a small bid in the early APAC trading hours. However, a resumption to the downside will see the 50-day SMA shift into focus.

AUD/USD 8-Hour Chart

aud-usd

Chart created with TradingView

— Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Thomas, use the comments section below or @FxWestwater on Twitter




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Posted: 13 Nov 2021 12:18 AM PST




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Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) Drift off All-Time Highs, Outlook is Still Bright

Posted: 12 Nov 2021 11:45 PM PST



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Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Alt-Coins – Prices, Charts, and Analysis

  • Crypto market fading lower, consolidation remains key.
  • The alt-coin market remains true to trend.

Bitcoin is back to its Monday opening level around $63.5k and is looking for support from the multi-week bullish channel. The first half of the week saw Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a range of alt-coins post new all-time highs while the last two days have seen all of these gains eroded. I mentioned last week that the upward velocity of the trend channel would eventually prove difficult to hold on to, but as we stand, this support remains in place and is tempering further losses. It would take a clear break below this support before the chart and sentiment turn to neutral.

Over the weekend, the Bitcoin Taproot upgrade is expected to take place. This upgrade will 'optimize scalability, privacy and smart contract functionality' according to a Taproot explainer article written by Bitcoin Magazine. It may be that Monday's ATH was caused by buying ahead of this upgrade and that the subsequent sell-off was caused by a lack of follow through after printing this new high. The weekend may be a volatile time for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Price Chart – November 12, 2021

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) Drift off All-Time Highs, Outlook is Still Bright

Ethereum is clinging on to trend support, just, and price action over the next few days may see the $4,450 area tested. The chart however continues to look bullish and any further sell-off may see longer-term buyers return to the market. Wednesday's big bearish engulfing candle is negative, so for Ethereum to move higher this needs to be broken which means a new all-time high will need to be made. This may cap any short-term push higher in Ethereum and lead to a period of consolidation.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) Daily Price Chart – November 12, 2021

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) Drift off All-Time Highs, Outlook is Still Bright

The alt-coin markettotal crypto market cap minus Bitcoin's market cap – remains within the recent trend and stuck to the 9-day moving average. As I mentioned last week, this channel is wide and allows for any reasonable-sized sell-offs, highlighted by the bearish candle made on Wednesday touching support before rebounding.

Crypto Total Market Cap Minus Bitcoin – November 12, 2021

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) Drift off All-Time Highs, Outlook is Still Bright

Chart by TradingView.

What is your view onBitcoin (BTC) andEthereum (ETH) – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.




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Posted: 12 Nov 2021 11:15 PM PST




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Posted: 12 Nov 2021 10:46 PM PST



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AUD/USD May Climb After China Smashes Trade Surplus Record

Posted: 12 Nov 2021 10:44 PM PST



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Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, China, Trade Balance, Risk Events – Talking Points

  • China trade surplus hits fresh record as global demand for goods surges
  • Markets may see risk-on mood as traders digest weekend news events
  • AUD/USD looks to break higher after big loss last week, Fib level eyed

Monday's Asia-Pacific Forecast

Asia-Pacific markets are set to open on a bright note to kick off the trading week after positive Chinese trade data crossed the wires. China's October trade surplus rose to $84.54 billion USD. That was more than $20 billion over what analysts expected, according to a Bloomberg survey. A big surge in exports alongside weaker-than-expected imports was responsible for the upside surprise in cross-border transactions.

The record figure suggests the appetite of global consumers is growing as Covid restrictions continue to roll back across key economies. However, weaker-than-expected imports highlighted China's domestic woes during a month when an energy crunch and a housing market slowdown weighed on sentiment. That caused Chinese policymakers to take several steps that impacted economic activity. Iron ore imports slowed in October, while coal inflows increased.

Today's economic docket is rather light, which will leave traders to digest the Chinese trade data from over the weekend. Investors may also be encouraged by the passage of a major infrastructure package in the United States. On Friday night, the House of Representatives passed a $1 trillion USD economic package that contains billions in new spending for roads, bridges, ports, electric vehicle stations and other construction projects.

Later this week, Chinese inflation and Australian employment data will cross the wires. The two events are potential high-impact risk drivers. Analysts expect China's October CPI to drop at 1.4% y/y, while Australia's employment change is forecasted for a +50k print, according to data from Bloomberg. China will also release new Yuan loans (Oct) later in the week.

AUD/USD Technical Forecast

AUD/USD is trading just under the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the September/October move as the APAC session kicks off. The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) provided support on last week's drop. If bull's can't clear above the Fib level, a move back to the 50-day SMA may be on the cards. Prices would eye the 61.8% Fib (0.7315) below that.

AUD/USD 8-Hour Chart

audusd

Chart created with TradingView

— Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Thomas, use the comments section below or @FxWestwater on Twitter




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Posted: 12 Nov 2021 10:39 PM PST



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Posted: 12 Nov 2021 10:26 PM PST



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