Sector Analysis and Key Events for Friday

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Summary
The Dow Future has slid 137 points to 25254. The US Dollar Index trended higher 0.173 points to 96.960. Gold is trending lower 2.06 dollars to 1222.93. Silver is lower 0.06600 dollars to 14.26450. The Dow Industrials moved down 27.59 points, at 25338.84, while the S&P 500 dropped 6.03 points, last seen at 2737.76. The Nasdaq Composite trended lower by 17.85 points to 7273.74. Streaming charts of these markets are available at MarketClub

Blog Postings and Videos
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Wednesday Nov 28th

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Tuesday Nov 27th

Key Events for Friday

9:45 AM ET. November ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI

PMI-Adj (expected 58.0; previous

9:45 AM ET. November US Manufacturing PMI

PMI, Mfg (previous 55.7)

10:00 AM ET. October Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place

New Construction (previous +0.0%)

Residential Construction

10:00 AM ET. November ISM Manufacturing Report on Business

Manufacturing PMI (previous 57.7)

Prices Idx (previous 71.6)

Employment Idx (previous 56.8)

Inventories (previous 50.7)

New Orders Idx (previous 57.4)

Production Idx (previous 59.9)

11:00 AM ET. November Global Manufacturing PMI

PMI, Mfg (previous 52.1)

4:00 AM ET. November Domestic Auto Industry Sales

Auto Sales Annualized (previous 17.57M)



 
Currencies Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
USD Index 96.960 +0.173 +0.18%
INVESCO DB US DOLLAR INDEX 25.835 -0.025 -0.10%
US Dollar/Canadian Dollar 1.331185 +0.002470 +0.19%
Euro/US Dollar 1.137345 -0.002005 -0.18%
JAPANESE YEN Dec 2018 0.008818 -0.000006 -0.07%
SWISS FRANC Dec 2018 1.0033 -0.0017 -0.17%
US Dollar/Hong Kong Dollar 7.82305 +0.00160 +0.02%

CURRENCIES

The December Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.90 is the next downside target. If December resumes this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 97.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 97.41. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 95.93. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.90.

The December Euro was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.04 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 113.54 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.04. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 115.45. First support is November's low crossing at 112.46. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.15.

The December British Pound was lower overnight. The low-range trade in the overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2632 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2908 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.3198. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.3297. First support is October's low crossing at 1.2722. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2632.

The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews November's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0107 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0015 would confirm that the rally off November's low has ended. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0107. First support is November's low crossing at 0.9902. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9833.

The December Canadian Dollar was lower in late-overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.73 would temper the bearish outlook. If December extends the decline off October's high, the May-2017 low crossing at 73.52 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.73. Second resistance is the 50-day crossing at 76.48. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 74.87. Second support is weekly support crossing at 73.52.

The December Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 0.0892 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 0.0872 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 0.0892. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 0.0901. First support is November's low crossing at 0.0877. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 0.0872.



 
Energy Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
CRUDE OIL Jan 2019 50.76 -0.69 -1.35%
NY HARBOR ULSD HEATING OIL Jan 2019 1.8210 -0.0184 -1.00%
NATURAL GAS Jan 2019 4.575 -0.071 -1.54%
RBOB GASOLINE Jan 2019 1.4058 -0.0241 -1.69%
0.00%
UNITED STATES GASOLINE 24.9261 +0.8761 +3.51%

ENERGIES

January crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates above the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 49.96. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 46.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.33 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 52.86. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.33. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 49.96. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 46.00.

January heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remains neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 173.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 203.21 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 192.49. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 203.21. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 181.42. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 173.08.

January unleaded gas was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 129.88 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 153.36 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 145.23. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 153.36. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 135.41. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 129.88.

January Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight. The low-range late-overnight trade leaves the door open for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January resumes the rally off September's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2016-decline crossing at 5.336 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.135 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 4.964. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of 2008-2016-decline crossing at 5.336. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.135. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.633.



 
Food Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
COCOA Mar 2019 2151 -14 -0.64%
COFFEE Mar 2019 112.05 -0.25 -0.22%
ORANGE JUICE-A Jan 2019 144.55 +3.30 +2.31%
IPATH SER B BLOOMBERG SUGAR SUBINDEX TOTAL RETURN 44.4200 +0.2494 +0.56%
IPATH SER B BLOOMBERG SOFTS SUBINDEX TOTAL RETURN 43.4399 +1.2099 +2.74%

FOOD & FIBER

March coffee closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.60 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 10.45 is the next downside target.

March cocoa closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off November's high, the reaction low crossing at 20.94 is the next downside target.

March sugar closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.81 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 11.91 is the next downside target.

March cotton closed slightly lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 79.39 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 76.50 is the next downside target.



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Grains Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
CORN Mar 2019 373.50 +0.25 +0.07%
OATS Mar 2019 287.00 -3.75 -1.29%
WHEAT Mar 2019 509.25 +1.50 +0.30%
TEUCRIUM CORN 15.9970 -0.0430 -0.27%
IPATH SER B BLOOMBERG GRAINS SUBINDEX TOTAL RETURN 46.385 -0.315 -0.68%
ELEMENTS MLCX GRAINS INDEX TRUST 3.24 -0.01 -0.31%
SOYBEANS Jan 2019 889.50 +2.25 +0.25%
SOYBEAN (MINI) Jan 2019 889.625 +2.375 +0.27%
SOYBEAN MEAL Jan 2019 308.6 -0.9 -0.29%
TEUCRIUM SOYBEAN 16.2745 -0.0755 -0.46%

GRAINS

March corn was steady overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins trading. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.77 3/4 would confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends the decline off November's high, the reaction low crossing at 3.66 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.83. Second resistance is the November 8th high crossing at 3.90. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.66 3/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.54 3/4.

March wheat was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.24 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off October's high, the December-2017 low crossing at 4.82 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.14 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.24 3/4. First support is November's low crossing at 5.03 1/4. Second support is the December-2017 low crossing at 4.82 1/4.

March Kansas City Wheat closed up a 1/4-cent at 4.92 1/2.

March Kansas City wheat closed fractionally higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.06 3/4 is the next upside target. If March extends the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 4.53 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.06 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.26. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.82 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.53.

March Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, July's low crossing at 5.59 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.77. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.87 3/4. First support is November's low crossing at 5.68 1/2. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.59.

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January soybeans closed higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends this week's rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.17 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 8.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 9.06 1/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.17. First support is October's low crossing at 8.44 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 8.26 1/4.

March soybean meal closed lower overnight while extending a three-month old trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the November 16th reaction high crossing at 317.00 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 303.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 330. 30. First support is Monday's low crossing at 305.30. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.40.

March soybean oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.15 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 26.88 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.15. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.94. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 27.42. Second support is weekly support crossing at 26.88.



 
Indexes Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
DJ 30 INDUSTRIALS 25338.84 -27.59 -0.11%
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX (COMBINED) 7273.74 -17.85 -0.25%
S&P 500 CASH 2737.76 -6.03 -0.22%
SPDR S&P 500 273.99 -0.59 -0.22%
iShares RUSSELL 2000 INDEX 151.785 -0.455 -0.30%

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as investors await this weekend's highly anticipated meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Argentina. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 7080.78 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 6688.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 6943.75. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7080.78. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6688.63. Second support is November's low crossing at 6449.50.

The December S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidated some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2777.06 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2691.88 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 2753.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2777.06. First support is November's low crossing at 2633.00. Second support is October's low crossing at 2605.00.



 
Interest Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
T-BONDS Mar 2019 139.84375 +0.34375 +0.25%
0.00%
5 YEAR T-NOTES Mar 2019 112.992188 +0.062500 +0.06%
ULTRA T-BONDS Mar 2019 152.46875 +0.43750 +0.29%
INVESCO SENIOR LOAN PORTF 22.64 -0.04 -0.18%

INTEREST RATES

December T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 140-28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 138-29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 140-28. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 141-29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138-29. Second resistance is November's low crossing at 136-24.

December T-notes was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 119.266 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.245 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 119.266. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the August-October-decline crossing at 120.070. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 119.097. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.245.



 
Livestock Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
FEEDER CATTLE Jan 2019 145.975 -1.525 -1.04%
LEAN HOGS Feb 2019 67.350 +2.850 +4.23%
LIVE CATTLE Feb 2019 120.275 -0.275 -0.23%
IPATH SER B BLOOMBERG LIVESTOCK SUBINDEX TOTAL RETURN 48.6564 -0.2274 -0.46%

LIVESTOCK

February hogs closed up $2.85 at $67.35.

February hogs closed sharply higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February renews the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 72.88 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 69.50. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 72.88. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.26. Second support is November's low crossing at 59.25.

February cattle closed down $0.28 at 120.28.

February cattle closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.32 would renew the rally off November's low. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.32. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 123.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.03. Second support is November's crossing at 116.67.

January Feeder cattle closed down $1.73 at $145.97.

January Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 147.24 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends today's decline, November's low crossing at 142.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 150.26 are needed to renew the rally off November's low. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 150.26. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 152.43. First support is today's low crossing at 144.67. Second support is November's low crossing at 142.67.



 
Metals Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
GOLD Feb 2019 1227.9 -2.5 -0.20%
SPDR GOLD SHARES 115.74 +0.36 +0.31%
SILVER Mar 2019 14.325 -0.077 -0.54%
PALLADIUM Mar 2019 1168.9 +17.5 +1.51%
DIREXION DAILY GOLD MINERS BEA 32.73 +0.78 +2.38%
INVESCO DB PRECIOUS METALS 34.9900 +0.0584 +0.17%

PRECIOUS METALS

February gold was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-months. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at 1252.00 is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at 1216.80 would open the door for a possible test of November's low crossing at 1202.40. First resistance is October's high crossing at 1252.00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1259.00. First support is November's low crossing at 1202.40. Second support is October's low crossing at 1192.00.

March silver was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 14.660 would confirm that a low has been posted. If March resumes this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 13.620 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 15.055. Second resistance is the August 28th reaction high crossing at 15.175. First support is November's low crossing at 13.985. Second support is monthly support crossing at 13.620.

March copper was slightly lower overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 288.80 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 272.50 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is September's high crossing at 288.80. Second resistance is the July 5th gap crossing at 295.45. First support is November's low crossing at 266.20. Second support is September's low crossing at 260.30.



 
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