Why King Dollar Won’t Be Dethroned Anytime Soon

Why King Dollar Won't Be
Dethroned Anytime Soon


Is there is no end to talk of how the U.S. dollar will soon be replaced as the world reserve currency by the euro or the yuan or a basket of currencies or gold or bitcoin or Libra? Even Michael Cembalest at JP Morgan is the latest to predict the dollar's rapid demise.

The reality is, the dollar will remain the global reserve currency for longer than anyone expects. In fact, as we head into the next financial crisis, the dollar is going to soar.

Look at this chart.

Despite all the naysayers, the dollar still rules.

It was the one major currency that appreciated in the worst of the 2008 crisis when Lehman collapsed and everything started falling apart before QE. In the second half of 2008 it appreciated 27% while gold crashed 33%.

And yes, since then we've printed trillions. But the ECB has printed more relatively speaking, and Japan has printed much more. Japan's balance sheet is now over 101% of GDP, while Europe's is 40%. The U.S. is a mere 19% after minor quantitative tightening.

What all these experts seem to miss – which is insane because it's blindingly obvious – is that…

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