NFP tomorrow at 13:00 (GMT). Are you ready to trade?


Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Google+ View our videos on YouTube View on Instagram 


What to expect from NFP release?


Hello, Trader FX
 
The U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate are out tomorrow

March 1, 2019, at 13:00 UK Time (GMT)

and expected to cause significant volatility in the markets.

On the first Friday of the first month of the new year, the attention of traders will be directed to a fresh package of US fundamental data on the labor market.


An economic indicator that tends to trigger sharp market movements
in the minutes leading up to its release and afterwards, the NFP is released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the first Friday of each month, outlining changes in the number of employees, excluding farm workers and those employed by the government, non-profit organisations and private households.




What to expect this month:

NonFarm Payrolls

Last data: 304K
Consensus forecast: 185K

We expect a rather impressive decline in the number of people employed in the US non-farm sector - 185K after 304K of the previous figure. It is impossible to call this an excellent forecast, and at the same time it is not necessary to take these figures as the beginning of a negative trend on this indicator. We tend to give them a temporary character.
 If this forecast comes true, then we can expect a moderate decline in the US currency.

Average Hourly Earnings

Last data: 0.1%
Consensus forecast: 0.3%

The Average HourlyEarnings level, according to our forecast, will rise to 0.3% on a monthly basis. The last release disappointed market participants a bit, so the expected numbers should put everything in its place. In favor of the growth of wages also, although indirectly, can speak the fact of increasing revenues and expanding the production of a number of American firms.
If the forecast is justified, it will contribute to the growth of the US currency.

Unemployment Rate

Last data: 4.0%
Consensus forecast: 3.9%

The unemployment rate is likely to please market participants with their numbers at 3.9%. It is no secret that each release of this indicator with numbers starting at 4.0%, as it was a month ago, provokes rumors about the end of the era of one of the lowest unemployment rates in US history. Nevertheless, the projected 3.9% will not only continue the positive trend, but may well become the next starting point for future records.
If this forecast is justified, then traders can expect an increase of the US dollar. In the case of excellent data on other indicators, it is worth waiting for a short rally of the American currency.


To keep your open positions and survive during the time
of market volatility due to news release, make sure you have enough funds in your account.




Keep in mind:
  • During the NFP announcement, expect high volatility, especially across USD pairs.
  • Market sentiment can really affect currency movements. What traders expect from the report has as much impact
    as the actual released data, if not greater.
  • A higher figure than the one registered during the previous month signifies an improvement in employment numbers. This, as well as the release of a higher-than-expected figure, means an increase in the number of jobs created and are positive for both the U.S. economy and the dollar.
  • A lower figure than the one registered during the previous month, as well as a lower-than-expected figure, usually have a negative impact on the dollar as they demonstrate a drop
    in employment numbers.
  • Remember that the sudden spike observed across the charts of many currency pairs upon the release of the NFPs
    is usually followed by a period during which the market tries
    to recover and return to its initial price levels.
Please do not hesitate to contact us 
with any questions in livechat
  
or e-mail us at support@paxforex.com
Risk Warning:Forex and CFD trading carry a high degree of risk. As such they may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should ensure they fully understand the risks associated with CFD trading before deciding to trade. Investors may choose to seek independent advice and should not risk more than they are prepared to lose.

No comments:

Post a Comment