The First Five Days
Harry Dent | January 03, 2020 | Seeing as this is my first Friday rant of the New Year, it's important to remind you that historically the first five days of market action are indicative of the direction we'll take for the next 12 months. And already things have been somewhat positive, with the Dow up about 330 points at the close on Thursday and the Nasdaq also getting a nice boost. Yet shortly after the close, a U.S. drone strike in Baghdad killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, who many claim to be the No. 1 bad guy and taker of U.S. lives in recent times. This is victory for us in the short-term, but there will surely be some sort of major retaliation in the coming days or weeks. Stocks were down over 300 points at worst early on Friday morning, largely erasing yesterday's strong gains. More importantly, the markets are backing off of my key resistance point just over 28,000 on the Dow. Breaking above yesterday's high of 28,873 will be bullish near-term, but breaking below 26,300 will be more bearish. We'll have to see how things continue to progress. And remember, one thing that's a better indicator than the first five days? The first full month. Of course, 2020 is expected to be an anomaly, as I've been writing about for quite some time, so it'll be tough to apply the conventional wisdom of market trends to what happens over the next few weeks. Remember, we're still deep into this megaphone pattern, and a downturn could also becoming that would scare people before the 2020 peak. That, along with the tumultuous political landscape at the moment – to say nothing of what happened in Baghdad overnight – will only further muddy the waters. And that's to say nothing of the pressures Trump will put on the Fed in order to keep the economy humming as he moves toward his re-election. To put it lightly, we're in for quite a wild one. I have more in this week's Friday Rant.  This Week in Economy & Markets...  For Christmas, did you get anything that weighed 4,500 pounds and cost more than $50,000? Did someone surprise you with a car or truck you didn't know was coming, walking you out to the driveway and handing you the keys? I know it happens, I'm just not sure it occurs often enough to warrant the...
 Credit Suisse just came out with their excellent Global Wealth Report for 2019. I will likely do a more in-depth report in The Leading Edge earlier in the New Year. The focus is on wealth, but the income statistics are even more illuminating in this time of peak inequality. I especially like their comparisons per...
 In the spirit of the New Year, I'm reviving my theme from last year – crazy possibilities. These are the "what if's" and "why not's?" that Americans live for. Think of them in the same light as that promising biotech penny stock you bought on your brother-in-law's recommendation that hasn't quite panned out, or the...
 I knew this repo crisis would require more injections, but it wasn't easy to get clear data on just how many it would take. I was trying to identify how much money has gone into propping up the repo or overnight bank lending market since its sudden spike in rates to 10% signaled a crisis...
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