The Real Estate Shortage (Part 1)

Real Estate Shortages Part I:
Millennials not Buying Like Boomers


Andrea Riquier, my favorite commentator on the housing market, grabbed my attention again with her 2018 MarketWatch article entitled "Missing Millennial Homeownership Endangers the American Dream." You can follow her on Twitter @ARiquier.

She pointed to a report from the Urban Institute's Housing Finance Policy Center that suggests the "story of Millennials and homeownership is in many ways a story of inequality in America – and one that might be getting worse," as she put it.

Let's look at this from my demographic perspective…

Boomers bought real estate at unprecedented speed and price, thereby inflating a housing bubble from 1983 into 2005. Demand drove up price. And that made them richer, especially the ones born earlier.

We saw this coming just by looking at simple demographic trends. Those same trends also warned of the looming bubble burst and I called the top of that first bubble in late 2005, just months before prices topped out in early 2006.

We are near the end of a second bubble in real estate, one equally as inflated as the last, but created with different forces. This second bubble has arisen more from falling supply than rising demand.

The demographic hiccup here is that, while Millennials rival Boomers in terms of numbers, they don't and won't have the same impact their grandparents had on the economy. Their numbers are spread out rather than concentrated in a sharp wave.

Think of Millennials like a pig smoothie passing through a python while the Boomers were the actual pig!

And, at this point in their spending wave…

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