An 8.9% Yielder for $15

 
Wealthy Retirement

SPONSORED

Former Chicago Board Options Exchange Trader Predicts...

Click Play
 

Stockflation is coming... Get ready now!

Here's how to protect your cash - click here.

Beware a Third Dividend Cut for This 8.9% Yielder

Marc Lichtenfeld, Chief Income Strategist, The Oxford Club

Marc Lichtenfeld

I don't envy managers of mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs), like the company I'm analyzing in today's Safety Net. It's tough to generate big profits these days. And that means problems when it comes to mortgage REITs' dividends.

Mortgage REITs make money by borrowing cash in the short term at lower interest rates and lending it out longer term at higher rates. The difference, minus expenses, is called net interest income and is how we measure a mortgage REIT's financial performance.

When the difference (the spread) between short- and long-term rates is large, mortgage REITs make more money. When it tightens, they make less. And over the past decade, the spread has been getting smaller.

The chart below shows the difference between the yields of the 10-year Treasury and 2-year Treasury. In 2020 and 2021, the spread started to widen, which is positive for mortgage REITs, though it was still quite low by historical standards.

Unfortunately for mortgage REITs and their investors, the spread is declining again.

The Interest Rate Spread Begins to Decline Again
 

In this environment, it's not surprising that Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (NYSE: ARI) has cut its dividend twice in the past year and a half. It currently pays a $0.35 per share quarterly dividend, down from $0.40 in March of last year and $0.46 in 2019. The current dividend yield is 8.9%.

SPONSORED

SHOCKING: $100 Billion Surging Into the 5G Market

Closeup $100 Bills
 

What do Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile, Dish Network, Charter Communications and Comcast have in common?

According to Barron's, they're all participating in "secret bidding" to secure as much as $100 billion worth of 5G spectrum.

The big winner in all of this frenzied spending? This little-known tech stock, which trades for less than $20 a share.

Get the scoop here...

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance invests in commercial real estate mortgages in the U.S. and Europe.

In 2020, net interest income was $278.7 million, down considerably from the $334.5 million the previous year.

The company paid out $251.3 million in dividends, so the dividend was covered. This year, net interest income is forecast to dip again to $276.5 million.

SafetyNet Pro does not like to see that. The model penalizes companies whose cash flow or net interest income are declining.

What Is SafetyNet Pro?
SafetyNet Pro is a groundbreaking tool that predicts dividend cuts with stunning accuracy. With it, you can determine the dividend safety rating of nearly 1,000 stocks. Access to SafetyNet Pro is reserved exclusively for subscribers of Marc's newsletter, The Oxford Income Letter. To learn more about SafetyNet Pro and The Oxford Income Letter, click here now.
 

Combine two years of falling net interest income with two dividend cuts in 18 months, and you get a low dividend safety rating, suggesting another cut is coming in the next year or so. And if the spread continues to decline, the company is even more likely to have to reduce the payout.

Dividend Safety Rating: F

Dividend Grade Guide
 

If you have a stock whose dividend safety you'd like me to analyze, leave the ticker symbol in the comments.

You can also click on the magnifying glass in the upper right part of the Wealthy Retirement homepage and enter the name of the company to see whether I've written about your favorite dividend stock recently.

Good investing,

Marc

TYPE A COMPANY'S NAME BELOW

 

SPONSORED

"She'll Be in Total and Utter SHOCK!"

Older Couple

Just imagine... you make a simple change to your brokerage account today. Just 45 days later, you show the balance to your spouse.

And there it is... a stack of fresh greenbacks just sitting in the bank. "How on earth did that happen?!" she exclaims.

Instead of spilling the beans yourself, we recommend you simply show her THIS video.

No comments:

Post a Comment