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Wealthpress

The Best Time to Buy Stocks

Posted: 13 Jan 2021 09:04 AM PST

The past year has been challenging for everybody. I truly get that. 

And I'm here to help you figure these things out.

So today I'm tackling one of the most frequently asked and most important questions I see in my inbox — what is the best time to buy stocks? 

What Is the Best Time to Buy Stocks? 

Here's one question that was sent to me recently: 

Roger, what is the best time to buy stocks? What time of the year do stocks tend to start moving higher, and when should we expect them to set their tone for the remainder of the year? 

— Graham

That just so happens to be a really great question, and to be honest with you, one I've been wanting to answer. 

You see, it's the second trading week of January. And in case you didn't already know, there is no better time than right now for the market to set its tone for the first quarter or two of 2021. 

That's especially true right now because President-elect Joe Biden is going to announce what he wants to do over the next four years. When new presidents take office, they typically start off with broad based plans. 

The word on the street is that Biden plans to start off with a trillion-dollar infrastructure project (yes, that's trillion with a "t"), centering around renewable energy, lithium and disruptive technology. 

So, to answer the question, I think the best time to buy stocks is the beginning of a new year. 

During the first two quarters of the year, stocks usually show their hand and give us a sense of overall direction. We'll get to see whether retail sales are impacting the market or if small- or large-cap stocks are leading. 

Check out my short video below and let's discuss what the best time to buy stocks is. What do you think? Sound off on when you think the best time to buy stocks is and why in the comment section below. 

Don't forget to give this video a thumbs up and subscribe to my new YouTube channel if you haven't already. 

 

P.S. Most people don't know this…

But thanks to a phenomenon called the "January Effect," a select number of stocks have the potential to surge higher than usual over the next few weeks. 

Investors who know what these stocks are can expect huge returns in no time flat. But get in on the wrong stocks… and it's like catching a falling knife. 

You don't want that. You want to be the person cashing in on a huge payday. And that's why you need to watch this presentation right away. 

In it, you'll discover which company just popped onto Adam Sarhan's radar — and why it could explode higher in record time. 

But don't delay. Time is running out to grab this huge windfall.                        

Click here to get in on these trades today. 

 

The post The Best Time to Buy Stocks appeared first on Wealthpress.

Global Stocks Down as Investors Monitor Vaccine Rollout

Posted: 13 Jan 2021 07:22 AM PST

Global stock markets and U.S. futures traded lower today as investors closely monitor the slow distribution of COVID-19 vaccines around the world as well as the possible impeachment of U.S. President Donald Trump. 

U.S. investors were encouraged by the original outlook of the recent COVID-19 vaccination rollout and the shift away from the Republican-controlled Senate to President-elect Joe Biden's Democratic party. The shift means Biden could see less objection when he releases the details of his economic stimulus plan on Thursday. 

But if vaccines and economic aid don't come soon, we're all in big trouble…  

In today's video, I have more on what's driving the stock market right now… how Trump's impeachment is influencing stocks… whether the COVID-19 vaccine production is priced into the market… one top stock you'll want to continue watching this week… and one actionable option trade with strike price and expiration date. 

 

P.S. You guys have got to check this out!

Stock market expert Adam Sarhan is finally giving a handful of folks access to his Alpha Trades system…

It's a group of special stocks that only a select few even know about… all with the potential to earn you triple-digit gains in as little as 24 hours! 

In fact, Adam has already found another stock on the move… and he says it's showing clear signs for exceptional growth. 

Ready to see its ticker and get all the information you need to know? 

Click here to get all the details. 

The post Global Stocks Down as Investors Monitor Vaccine Rollout appeared first on Wealthpress.

Bitcoin Blowup: Crypto Crashes and Cash Correlations

Posted: 12 Jan 2021 03:00 PM PST

When I sit down in the morning to log in and peruse the markets, I usually start off by scrolling through my newsfeed on Twitter.

Given I have to cover several markets simultaneously, I've curated all the people I follow into broad categories and assigned them to lists that I can separate out. I've got a feed for macroeconomics, a feed for metals and mining, a feed for oil and gas… you get the picture.

One market I haven't really covered much, however, is Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

For the second time this year, the cardinal cryptocurrency has plummeted double-digit percentages in a single day — each one shot across my Twitter feed by Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal.

Source: Joe Weisenthal

That was followed in rapid succession by a flurry of posts from other people stepping outside of their usual comfort zones to comment on crypto markets… and those opinions were all over the place. 

As such, I thought it would be helpful to do a quick refresh of the assessment I did back in November.

Correlation Re-visitation

Just as a refresher, the analytic approach I like to take with commodities and currencies — especially when price movement is particularly strange — is to look at correlations.

Two things are said to be negatively correlated to each other when they tend to move in opposite directions, as with the dollar and gold in the chart below from April through August 2018. 

Source: twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1346038379960537089

On the other hand, if they tend to move in the same direction, they are said to be positively correlated, just like the dollar and gold from October through November 2018.

When I last looked at bitcoin, however, I was focusing on its correlation to gold, which had just begun to break down… and has since broken down further.

Source: Bloomberg, Seawolf Research

While I was correct at the time that we'd see a correction in bitcoin — that happened two weeks later — it rebounded to prior highs within a couple of sessions.

And in late December, it absolutely exploded, moving up almost 175% to its high point last week before pulling back to its current levels.

Source: Bloomberg

So, it's probably no surprise that after a move like that, the question I've been asked the most over the past couple of days is… which direction is it going from here?

Well, the answer likely lies in the near-term performance of a different currency… the US Dollar.

Correlation Inflation

Since putting in its high at 103 during the coronavirus lockdowns last March, the US Dollar has been absolutely torched, making lower highs and lower lows for nearly the entire duration since.

Source: Bloomberg

But it's been during the period since we last looked at bitcoin in November where it has fared the worst, failing to take out a single resistance level to the upside during this period. 

And it probably comes as no surprise that almost all other asset classes — commodities in particular — have done well over that time. 

Since the beginning of December, lumber is up 38%, iron ore and steel are up over 30%, nickel is up 20%, gasoline is up 20%, oil is up 14%, corn, soybeans, wheat and milk are all up over 10%, copper is up 6%…indicating that inflation is ramping up in the economy.

Image may contain: sky

And with the U.S. Dollar Index mired between its last mid-December high at 91, and its Jan. 5 low just above 89, it's clear the current trajectory remains lower.

Source: Bloomberg

While short bets on the US Dollar aren't quite at all-time highs, they're close.

Source: Bloomberg

Which means in turn that while this bearish dollar trade is still working, we need to be cognizant of a potential unwind.

And while longer-term negative correlations between the DXY and equity/commodity markets remain intact, they are getting a little smaller.

Source: Bloomberg, Seawolf Research

If this slowdown in correlation for bitcoin and commodities moves out to the 30-day and beyond, it becomes a trend, which likely involves a downward shift in performance. 

So, while I think we do see a rebound in bitcoin prices here, it's still too early to tell if there's enough downside in the dollar left to get crypto back to all-time highs.

However, my eyes tend to focus more on the 15/30-day gold correlation, which flipped back to more typical negative values.

If that trends for a month or so longer, we could see gold prices — mired in a slump for months — break out of their shell.

For now, though – with stimulus on its way in just a few weeks — we wait.

All the best,

Matt Warder

The post Bitcoin Blowup: Crypto Crashes and Cash Correlations appeared first on Wealthpress.

Stock Market Recap: Tuesday, Jan. 12, 2021

Posted: 12 Jan 2021 01:56 PM PST

Wall Street was choppy but closed higher ahead of a congressional vote on a resolution that calls for Vice President Mike Pence to invoke the 25th amendment and remove President Donald Trump from office — and more in Tuesday's stock market recap. 

The vaccine continues to be rolled out in the U.S. amid rising coronavirus cases, but the pace in some cities has been slower than anticipated and continues to weigh on sentiment.

Stock Market Recap

The Russell 2000 rallied 1.8% after trading to an all-time peak of 2,128.

stock market recap

The Nasdaq added 0.3% with the opening high hitting 13,105.

stock market recap

The Dow nudged up 0.2% following the intraday run to 31,114.

stock market recap

The S&P 500 was up over a point, or 0.04%, with the first-half high reaching 3,810.

stock market recap

Energy and Consumer Discretionary led sector strength after soaring 3.5% and 1.5%, respectively. Communication Services and Financials were the sector laggards after stumbling 1.6% and 1.1%.

Stock Market Movers

Shares of FuboTV Inc. (NYSE: FUBO) zoomed 34% after the company announced an agreement to acquire Vigtory, with plans to launch online gambling in 2021. 

stock market recap

Stock Market Outlook 

The start of the fourth-quarter earnings season is underway with a number of Financial companies announcing numbers ahead of Friday's opening bell. The overall focus will be on expectations for full-year 2021 after a pandemic-plagued 2020. Estimates have been going up since early July, with S&P 500 earnings for the year expected to be up 22.7%.

For Q4 2020, S&P 500 earnings are expected to be down 10.4% on 0.3% higher revenues, which would follow a -7% earnings decline in the third quarter on -0.7% lower revenues.

For the Finance sector, Q4 earnings are expected to be down -7.6% on -2.9% lower revenues, which would follow a decline of -11.7% in earnings for Q3

For the Technology sector, Q4 earnings are expected to be down -0.3% on 9.2% higher revenues, which would follow the 13% Q3 earnings growth.

Looking at the calendar-year picture for the S&P 500 index, earnings are expected to decline -16.7% on -3.6% lower revenues in 2020 while increasing 22.7% on 7.6% higher revenues in 2021.

For the small-cap S&P 600 index, fourth-quarter earnings are projected to fall -17.9% on -3.1% lower revenues and would follow the -6.2% decline on -5% lower revenues in the third quarter.

For full-year 2020, the S&P 500 index is expected to post a -29.4% decline in earnings on -10.6% lower revenues, with easy comps pushing earnings growth to 35.8% in 2021.

Global Economy

The global stock market recap shows European markets closed higher on both sides of the ledger.

The Belgium20 added 0.5% and the Stoxx 600 was up 0.1%. The UK's FTSE 100 fell 0.7% and France's CAC 40 was off 0.2%. Germany’s DAX 30 dipped 0.1%.

Asian markets were also mixed as lockdowns returned in China following the worst virus outbreak in months.

China’s Shanghai soared 2.2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped 1.3%. Japan's Nikkei edged up 0.1%. South Korea's Kospi fell 0.7% and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.3%. 

U.S. Economy

January chain-store sales dropped -2.6% month-over-month for the week ending Jan. 9, according to Johnson Redbook, after sales had improved through December with a 0.5% gain over the five weeks ending Jan. 2. Sales for the week of Jan. 9 posted a 2.1% year-over-year increase compared to the same week last year. January sales are expected to post a -1.3% decline versus December, and register a 3.4% year-over-year rate of growth compared to January 2020.

Stock Market Sentiment

Kansas City Federal Reserve President Esther George said speculation about tapering quantitative easing is premature, while repeating that the FOMC needs to achieve its unemployment and inflation goals before making adjustments. She’s supporting a wait-and-see approach. 

George added the delay in relief and the rise in the virus infections have stalled the economy, but the recent passage of stimulus, low inventories, and vaccine rollouts point to a stronger 2021. She is generally optimistic but says one of the most substantial risks is delay or disruption to vaccine distribution.

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (Nasdaq: TLT) fell for the seventh straight session after trading to an intraday low of $149.93. Prior and upper support from mid-March at $150-$149.50 was breached but held. A move below the latter would suggest additional downside risk towards $148.50-$148.

Resistance remains at $151.50-$152.

stock market recap

Volatility Index

The iPath S&P Vix Short-Term Futures (NYSEArca: VIX) was down for the fifth time in six sessions despite tapping a midday peak of 25.15. Near-term and lower resistance at 25-25.50 was breached but held.

The fade to 22.83 and close back below the 50-day moving average afterwards tripped but held current and upper support at 23-22.50.

stock market recap

Stock Market Analysis

The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE: DIA) rebounded after trading to an afternoon high of $311.25. Current and lower resistance at $311-$311.50 was cleared but held. A move above the $312 level and last week's peak at $311.98 would signal a possible breakout towards the $313.50-$314 area.

Support is at $309-$308.50 followed by $307.50-$307. 

RSI is back in a slight uptrend with key resistance at 70 holding. A close above this level and the early November peak would suggest strength towards 75 and late August/early September top. Support is at 65-60.

stock market recap

Sector

The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE: XLK) was down for the second straight session following the intraday pullback to $127.83. Near-term and upper support at $128-$127.50 was breached but held. A move below the latter would signal ongoing weakness towards $126.50-$126.

Resistance is at $129.50-$130.

RSI remains in a downtrend with upper support at 55-50 holding. A close  below the latter would signal additional weakness towards 45-40 and levels from late October. Resistance is at 60-65.

stock market recap

Check back after the closing bell for the most important news and numbers in the WealthPress stock market recap. 

The post Stock Market Recap: Tuesday, Jan. 12, 2021 appeared first on Wealthpress.

Anatomy of a Trade: GM EV News Sends Stock Soaring

Posted: 12 Jan 2021 01:33 PM PST

We saw shares of General Motors leap to all-time highs Tuesday morning after the company revealed its new GM electric delivery van — and the possibility of flying cars.

Much like the cars of "Back to the Future" (if GM has anything to do with it), the company’s stock shot skyward. It rose nearly 9% to the highest it's ever been at $48.95, topping its last record high of $46.76 back in 2017. 

And by 2040, General Motors (NYSE: GM) could be worth trillions by reimagining the future with "personal air mobility." The flying car will be designed for one person and will have the ability to travel over 50 mph while zooming over rooftops.

Just think about it: It'll be like your own personal air taxi.

Thanks to all the wild news surrounding the new GM electric delivery van, we were able to capitalize on two credit spreads while our positions began to move up.

GM Electric Delivery Van Sends Shares Soaring

While we could never have seen today's news coming, it gave us the chance to double our profits! 

We initiated a bull put credit spread on GM with our 2-Click Profit members just before news of GM's plans for flying cars and electric delivery vans broke.

There are a couple of reasons we did this… From a technical standpoint (and after looking at the daily chart and 20-day simple moving average), we noticed implied volatility in GM was high — which is good. If you are a premium seller, then you know that higher volatility means higher premiums. 

The other reason was the price was above the 20- and 50-day moving averages, and we saw a bounce forming after two days in the red. We made our first profits using the down days to our advantage, and used the implied volatility to sell puts.

But we also saw large institutional call buying — even more so now after GM announced its new electric delivery van… And if you combine that with a technical setup, you're looking at a beautiful trading move.

Since you can only make what you sell the bull credit spread for, we now wanted more exposure to the long side of things. So we bought a bull credit spread on GM as well.

A move like this is called a bullish risk reversal — it's similar to a synthetic long position and only profitable if the stock goes up a significant amount.

And thanks to news of the GM electric delivery van, our positions soared.

Watch the video below to learn step-by-step how we traded actionable news on the GM electric delivery van with our technical strategies.

The post Anatomy of a Trade: GM EV News Sends Stock Soaring appeared first on Wealthpress.
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