Depressing stimulus

Bill Bonner’s Diary

Depressing Stimulus

By Bill Bonner

Thursday, January 14, 2021

Bill Bonner

WEST RIVER, MARYLAND – Hold onto your hats…

Today, the president-elect will give us a measure of the catastrophe ahead. From The New York Times:

Biden Set to Call for Big Spending on Stimulus and Vaccines

President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. on Thursday is expected to outline proposals for trillions of dollars in government spending to combat the coronavirus pandemic and its effects on the economy, with an initial focus on large-scale expansions of the nation’s vaccination program and virus testing capacity.

Brainwashed

In a modern democracy, the role of the citizen, after an appropriate period in the public schools, is to believe six impossible things before breakfast… and another six after tea.

Tesla is worth $800 billion. Sure it is.

Joe Biden is going to make America freer and more prosperous than ever – Sure he is!

And how will he do it? With more stimulus, of course.

Fortunately, your editor slept through his Civics 101 class… and missed the important lavage du cerveau that is critical for our government.

And here’s Chuck Schumer with a familiar message. From Bloomberg:

Incoming Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has pressed President-elect Joe Biden to propose more than $1.3 trillion in spending for his initial round of Covid-19 relief, according to a person familiar with the matter.

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Relief?

Hold on. Let’s set the record straight.

The feds have no “relief” available to them. They are bust… broke… penniless. They bake no bread to offer the hungry. They weave no wool to clothe the naked. And they drive no nails to house the homeless.

All they can do is hand out more fake money. How much “relief” that will bring is the subject of today’s ramble.

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Modern Miracle

Imagine two guys shipwrecked on an island. One collects berries. The other gathers nuts. They trade with each other, keeping track with the money supply that was in their pockets when they washed up.

Along comes a passing cruise ship. Well-meaning tourists, seeing the two men in rags, toss them money – enough to double their money supply. (For reference, the U.S. money supply – M1 – rose 70% last year.)

Surely that stimulated their island’s economy, no? Each had more money to spend.

But what difference did it make? None. The additional money didn’t help them find more nuts or collect more berries.

But just as medieval ecclesiastic scholars could explain the miracle of turning water into wine, so, too, can modern Ph.D. economists, Joe Biden, newspaper columnists, and indeed, the average New York Times subscriber, explain the magic of turning “printing press” money into real wealth.

“Stimulus,” they say. The word rolls off the tongue and slides off the page. It conjures up an image of a man having a cup of coffee… looking at dirty pictures… or… facing a firing squad.

It suggests that with the proper encouragement, he might alter his behavior. He might put more spring in his step. He might work harder. He might take more chances with his time and his money; he might become more productive.

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Aggressive Stimulation

That’s the theory… pathetic as it is.

And how does it work out? We’re not even going to mention Zimbabwe, Venezuela, or Argentina… you know the story already.

Besides, we know what you’re thinking:

Those are “sh*thole” countries, as Donald Trump famously phrased it.

America is different, isn’t it?

But impossible is impossible, no matter where you try to do it. And printing-press money causes disaster everywhere.

The U.S. began resorting to the printing press in a major way following the crisis of 2008-2009. Since then, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet – a good measure of how much new money has been added – has grown from less than $900 billion to nearly $7.5 trillion.

Never before had America “printed” so much or “stimulated” its economy so aggressively.

Lethargic Growth

And what happened?

While the Fed added to the money supply at nearly 18% per year… real GDP – roughly measuring the exchange of goods and services in the U.S. economy – barely grew at a 1.3% annual rate.

How did that compare to the previous 10 years?

Here’s the shocking thing. During those years, 1999 to 2008, the Fed “stimulated” at less than half the 2009-2020 rate… while the economy (as measured by GDP) grew twice as fast.

In other words, “stimulus” made the U.S. economy more lethargic.

Since the U.S. stepped up its stimulus efforts in 2008, the rate of wealth creation has been cut in half.

So, Mr. Biden… More stimulus? Sure, why not.

Regards,

signature

Bill


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MAILBAG

Mixed feedback today from Bill’s essay, “Fake Revolutionaries,” in which he shared his thoughts on the riot at the U.S. Capitol building last week…

I agree with some of what you say, although you deliver your points with such an arrogant air. Your tone reminds me of Anderson Cooper on CNN, talking about Trump supporters going back to Olive Garden and Holiday Inn.

I don’t agree with you about the MAGA movement being fake. It’s very real and not going away anytime soon. It’s unfortunate that you don’t agree with it. Try not to sound so haughty in your next writing. It comes through more than you realize.

– Diane O.

Bill, you are soft-peddling the Capitol invasion. Yes, much overstating and political over-hype. But had the mob invaded your home or place of business, you would be less dismissive. They did loot, steal, plunder, injure, and cause death. Give it a name that applies – this was not an insignificant event.

– Jerry J.

Unbelievable, yes. And yet, there is great benefit to anyone who wants to not only discredit Trump, but every bit of his movement (which, according to the election, is about half of our citizens). I find it hard to believe, if a natural event, that our Capitol would not be prepared to prevent this at any time, let alone on a contentious day.

Given this fits the “Trump is the devil” grand narrative a little too perfectly, and given the political cover it gives to those in power and coming to power, as a thinking-ordinary person, I have to question how much of it was staged and/or allowed. I can’t really know.

I admit I don’t know the facts. I mourn that I can’t really know what I would like to know. I don’t just assume that whatever matches my bias must be a fact. There is just too much money and power at stake to take things at face value. I can just observe, think about what makes sense to me, and ask questions.

– James W.

Bill, thank you for your cool-headed and historical perspective of the January 6 event. I am not a conspiracy advocate, but I am concerned that what we witnessed was successfully hijacked by another agenda that is unfolding according to plan.

– Gerald Y.

Hi Bill, I was at the rally. Time will tell if you missed the mark. You may want to expand your sources of information. I expect Trump will be revealed as one of the greatest presidents in U.S. history. I think we all know soon.

– Ronald T.

While others give their take on Tuesday’s Diary, “Future Imperfect”...

Apparently, socialism is the new America. Kids for years have been brainwashed in our schools and universities. With promises of free everything.

Nothing is free. People don’t value what they don’t earn. It will fail, as it always does. Then what? It will be too late. 

– Steve R.

Always enjoyable to read your thoughts, Bill! Government censorship is all I ever occasionally worried about. But never did I expect our nation to be victimized by corporate censorship. I believe the Democrats stole the election, but they stole it fair and square... as the sleepy GOP watched. 

– Tom M.

What would it mean for a political party to “steal” an election? How do you classify the Trump “Make America Great Again” movement? Write us at feedback@rogueeconomics.com.

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