I had a somewhat startling realization while hiking with my dog the other day... It is fall. The lush green of the day before had been replaced overnight by falling yellow leaves. You could smell the change in the air. Even my pup could smell it as she caught the scent of turkeys in the crisp "suddenly fall" morning. But it's not just the weather that's changing. For investors, October marks the beginning of the most important three-month stretch for the U.S. economy - holiday spending. The unofficial start of the holiday shopping season is merely days away - October 10. Of course, there's no beating around the bush. This year won't be typical for seasonal spending, but nothing in 2020 has been. However, don't go all "Grinch" just yet. Because there's one surefire investment I believe everyone should consider that is bound to bring holiday cheer. Two New Shopping HolidaysIt's finally starting. People are starting to think about the holidays. They're creating wish lists and jotting down perfect gift ideas for loved ones. And even though we haven't gotten past Halloween yet, Americans are expected to start their holiday spending this Saturday. That's thanks to two new unique initiatives. The first is the 10.10 shopping festival. The second is Amazon's (Nasdaq: AMZN) Prime Day, which was pushed to October 13 and 14. This could be the company's largest Prime Day ever, with projections of more than $10 billion in gross merchandise sales over the two-day span. Now, the outlook for the holiday season is cautiously optimistic. Many forecasts are for a roughly 1% to 1.5% increase in sales year over year. That would bring total holiday sales to around $1.15 trillion. But there's the potential for a major surge. In fact, there are projections of as much as a 2.6% increase if consumer confidence picks up, particularly among more affluent consumers. That's still considerably less than the growth we've seen in most years. And it would be close to the slowest increase we've recently seen, of 2.1% in 2018. But considering all that's transpired this year, this demonstrates the resilience of the American consumer. And there's one way I believe investors can play this upswing... e-commerce. |
No comments:
Post a Comment