This was supposed to be the year of nickel's rebound. Some forecasts even had the industrial metal surging 20% to $16,375 per metric ton. And 2020 was supposed to be only the beginning. Nickel was projected to top $25,000 per ton by 2025 and $28,000 per ton by 2027. Those are levels the metal hasn't seen since the booming glory days of 2006. And those surging prices were expected to be fueled largely by the massive expansion of the global electric vehicle (EV) market. The global demand for nickel in EV batteries is projected to increase more than tenfold from 2018 to 2025. But, as is so often the case with nickel, that optimism - and those rocketing prices - is easily undone. A Bull Market UndoneNickel has long earned its reputation as the most volatile metal contract. The global economy and the metal's dependence on stainless steel demand are constant thorns and opportunities for traders. The ongoing economic feud and tit-for-tat tariffs between the U.S. and China have only added to the roller-coaster ride of the last couple of years. And what a roller coaster it's been. From the end of December 2018 to October 2019, nickel rocketed nearly 70% higher and topped $18,000 for the first time since 2014. The reported shortage of stainless steel, as well as Indonesia's 2020 ban on nickel and ore exports, got the bulls into a frenzy. Then traders realized there was no stainless steel shortage. It was all speculation. And prices imploded. But 2020 was supposed to be a year of renewed hope... a reset as the global markets shook off the disastrous speculation from the summer of 2019. Then COVID-19 struck. At its lows in March, nickel tumbled below $11,200 per metric ton. It's since rebounded and topped $13,700. But are even brighter days ahead? |
No comments:
Post a Comment