You Can't Paint Every Sector With the Same BrushIt would be foolish to not listen to what investors with long-term track records like these are saying. So listen, but also critically analyze. Druckenmiller and Tepper are sounding the alarm on the same thing I wrote to you about late last month: Against the current economic backdrop, the S&P 500 is expensive. But we need to dig deeper here... As I noted back in April, the S&P 500 is now dominated by large technology stocks. Never before has this index been this concentrated in just five stocks. Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN), Alphabet (Nasdaq: GOOGL) and Facebook (Nasdaq: FBI) now account for more than 25% of the value of the S&P 500. Those stocks have had great runs this year despite the terrible economy. No wonder David Tepper singled out Amazon, Facebook and Google as being great companies but clearly not cheap stocks. Given that these companies now make up such a massive percentage of the S&P 500, simple math dictates that if these stocks are expensive, the market also has to be expensive. Other areas of the market, however, are much more attractively valued. Three areas that I have been encouraging you to look at in recent weeks are American banks, small caps and homebuilders. The chart below shows how different the performance of these sectors has been relative to the large technology stocks, as captured by the MicroSectors FANG+ ETN (NYSE: FNGS). While the big tech stocks are actually having a great year (they are up 16%), the story is very different for homebuilders, small caps and banks (which are down between 21% and 42%). To be clear, I am not suggesting that the companies in these sectors aren't going to have terrible earnings over the next 18 months. It is going to be very tough sledding for some time to come. What I am saying is that for investors willing to look beyond the next 18 months, the long-term earnings power of these companies hasn't changed all that much. When earnings start going back up in the second half of 2021, the stock prices of these companies will have to go a lot higher to properly reflect that. Good investing, Jody P.S. Be sure to tune in tomorrow to Nicholas Vardy's Swing Trader Summit at 1 p.m. Nicholas will explain how you could build your own impressive track record by harnessing the power of today's smartest tech. Click here to save your seat in the free virtual event. |
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