NFP Friday 7 February 2020 at 1:30 pm. Are you ready to trade?


Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook  View our videos on YouTube View on Instagram 


What to expect from NFP release?


Hello, Trader FX


This Friday, the attention of traders will be focused on the first in the new year figures of labor statistics from the United States. Employment in the non-agricultural sector (NonFarm Payrolls), Average Hourly Earnings, as well as the Unemployment Rate will determine the future direction of the American currency.





What to expect this month:


Non-Farm Payrolls Employment

Last data: 145K
Consensus Forecast: 160K

The U.S. labor market remains the backbone of the U.S. economy, with fewer jobs created last month than expected, as reported by the Department of Labor last Friday. In late 2019, the labor market slowed down. Non-farm employment increased by 145k in December compared to expectations of growth of 164k. Although the forecasted figures are slightly lower than the previous ones, which is not significant at the moment. According to the Atlanta Federal Reserve's job growth estimates, the U.S. economy needs only + 111 thousand new jobs per month over the next 12 months to maintain its current unemployment rate at 3.8%.
In case this forecast comes true, Forex traders should expect the growth of the American dollar against its main competitors.
U.S. Average Hourly Earnings YoY

Last data: 0.1%
Consensus forecast: 0.3%
This indicator shows the change in the average hourly wage level for major industries, except agriculture.

Unemployment Rate

Past data: 3.5%
Consensus forecast: 3.5%
The US unemployment rate remains at a historic low of 3.5%. Let's start with the economic outlook: China and the US signed a trade agreement shortly after the December Fed meeting and since then we have seen both improvements and worsening of the US statistics. According to the table below, retail sales recovered at the end of the year and activity in the service sector accelerated, but consumer confidence, employment and wage growth, inflation, manufacturing activity, and trade balance worsened, these facts may negatively affect the changes in the number of jobs.
Trade wars, conflicting views of FOMC and President Donald Trump, who believes that interest rates should be lowered in order to further develop private companies and strengthen the country's economy, China's coronavirus, trade truce, and other factors make this report particularly liquid and attractive to investors at various levels.
During the previous release of the data, the movement on the EUR/USD currency pair at the moment made 16 points.
But it also caused a total short-term movement of 87 points.
The more interesting course of the event took place on the asset, which closely correlates with the currency pair EUR/USD - gold, at the moment of publication prices for the asset rose by 98 points.



To keep your open positions and survive during the time
of market volatility due to news release, make sure you have enough funds in your account.




Keep in mind:
  • During the NFP announcement, expect high volatility, especially across USD pairs.
  • Market sentiment can really affect currency movements. What traders expect from the report has as much impact
    as the actual released data, if not greater.
  • A higher figure than the one registered during the previous month signifies an improvement in employment numbers. This, as well as the release of a higher-than-expected figure, means an increase in the number of jobs created and are positive for both the U.S. economy and the dollar.
  • A lower figure than the one registered during the previous month, as well as a lower-than-expected figure, usually have a negative impact on the dollar as they demonstrate a drop in employment numbers.
  • Remember that the sudden spike observed across the charts of many currency pairs upon the release of the NFPs
    is usually followed by a period during which the market tries
    to recover and return to its initial price levels.
Please do not hesitate to contact us 
with any questions in livechat
  
or e-mail us at support@paxforex.com
Risk Warning:Forex and CFD trading carry a high degree of risk. As such they may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should ensure they fully understand the risks associated with CFD trading before deciding to trade. Investors may choose to seek independent advice and should not risk more than they are prepared to lose.
Laino Group, 1825, Cedar Hill Crest, Villa, Kingstown, 21973 Saint Vincent & the Grenadines

No comments:

Post a Comment