How Long Do Final Rallies Like This One Last?

The Fate of Final Rallies Harry Dent | February 19, 2020 I have been talking recently about how this final blow-off rally since the sharp 20%+ crash into late December 2018 is tracking very close to the one that occurred from late October 1998 into late March 2000. That correlation suggests that this rally could last into late May or so, at the height of the normal annual seasonal cycle that says, "Sell in May and go away." But wait. This is an election year and a highly contested one, with every incentive for the Donald to pull out all the stops to win: consumer tax rebates and incentives for investing in stocks near the top of the greatest bubble in modern history… Does that sound rational to you? Donald's middle initial "J" may go from standing for "genius" (his term) to "jerk." I showed in a recent article that the trajectory of this final blow-off from late December 2018 would project to a peak around late May of this year. But odds are that it should go longer in this unique election year with so much incentive for more stimulus, from the repo crisis to the coronavirus. This table shows the final rally of every S&P 500 broader index bull market without a 20% correction since 1949 after World War WII. The bubble market of 1987-2000, which more technically speaking began in October of 1990, is most relevant in time and gains to this one. [Click to Enlarge] The range of the final rally gains are 29% to 68%. The average crash after has been 42%. But, mark my words, this one will be the greatest you see – and closer to 1929-32, between 70% and 90% after such an unprecedented bubble. If this final long rally compares to the last tech bubble one from October 1998 into March 2000, it would last about three to four more months into late May to late June. The gains from here would be about 15% for the S&P 500 at around 3,900 and 20%+ for the Nasdaq at 11,500-12,000. This final bull market peak is now months away, not years, as many are suggesting. I see a peak between late March at the earliest and February of 2021 at the latest. Best range would be 11,000-12,000 between late May and the election. If I had to give my pick this early in this late game, I would pick between late August and late October, at 11,000-12,000 on the Nasdaq. We'll see… I examine more scenarios and iterations in the March Boom & Bust newsletter, which will hit your inboxes late next week Harry Dent P.S. If you've been looking to break into tech investing while this bull market continues to rage, on you're going to want to check out Lance Gaitan's live webinar on February 25th. This is where he'll be showing viewers how to uncover bigger, faster and safer tech profits without risking a ton of money on speculative penny stocks or waiting 10 years for a company to break through. Click here to reserve a spot. This Week in Economy & Markets... Pay Your Taxes Rodney Johnson | Feb 18, 2020 I received a dreaded audit letter from the IRS in 2015, covering the 2013 tax year. I contacted my CPA, gathered my documents, and made the trek to their office at the appointed time. After 90 minutes, the auditor determined I underpaid on my 2013 taxes by $37. He was wrong, but... READ MORE » Fed Continues on High Side of Sideways in Stimulus Since End of 2019 Harry Dent | Feb 17, 2020 As I have been following, the big event in the past 4.5 months has been the Fed moving back to aggressive stimulus since the repo crisis. The printing of money to buy repos and T-bills reached a peak of $424 billion in late December and has moved sideways since... READ MORE » The World's Best Financial Minds in One Room Harry Dent | Feb 14, 2020 Just returning from the Tony Robbins Platinum Finance event in Sun Valley, Idaho, I wanted to share some of my biggest takeaways I think all Economy & Markets would benefit from hearing about. One of my favorite speakers, whose background is in history... READ MORE » Puerto Rico: A Disaster That's Already Happening Rodney Johnson | Feb 13, 2020 One of my best friends in college hailed from Puerto Rico, the daughter of Cuban immigrants. I went to her wedding in Old San Juan and enjoyed a glorious few days on the island. Harry moved there a few years ago and often speaks of the beautiful setting and wonderful restaurants.... READ MORE » Economy & Markets | Dent Research You are receiving this e-mail as a part of your free subscription to Economy & Markets E-Letter. Remove your email from this list: Unsubscribe. To cancel by mail or for any other subscription issues, write us at: Charles Street Research Attn: Member Services, 819 North Charles Street, Baltimore MD, 21201 | Phone: 888-211-2215 | Fax: 410-223-2682 LEGAL NOTICE: Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This e-letter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the worldwide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Charles Street Research. This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases and what we've learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors and you shouldn't make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It's your money and your responsibility. The information herein is not intended to be personal legal or investment recommendations and may not be appropriate or applicable for all readers. If personal advice is needed, the services of a qualified legal, investment or tax professional should be sought. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication or 72 hours after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Click here to view our privacy policy.