Crashing RV Sales Forecast 2020 Recession Harry Dent | August 26, 2019 RV sales are crashing at a year-over-year rate of 20% below sales for the same period last year. 2017 was the peak thus far and 2018 sales were 4% lower. Hence, this year's crash is making this look like a clear top. RVs are one of our mid-life-to-retirement sectors for Boomers. Sales used to peak at age 63, but the most recent updates to the Consumer Expenditure Survey shows them peaking a bit earlier, at age 59-60. That still makes it a strong growth industry into 2020-2021 for aging Boomers. Hence, there's no demographic reason for this industry to be waning yet. That makes this a potent recession indicator as it was for the last recession. This first chart shows the trends since 1990 before its Spending Wave started rising in 1997. [Click to Enlarge] The last peak came in late 2006 – several months after home prices peaked – and by two years later, in early 2008, we started the worst recession since 1981-82 and 1930-33. After the peak in late 2017/early 2018, we should be seeing a recession… and soon! The next chart hones in a bit finer through the percentage change. Growth crossed the zero line to negative in early 2006 before – about a two-year lead on the recession of early 2008. Now, it crossed again in early 2018 and is accelerating rapidly in 2019. That would portend a recession by early 2020. [Click to Enlarge] Also, recall my Dow Home Construction Index that first peaked in late 2005 when home sales peaked, a little over two years before the last recession. It peaked in mid-2017 this time around and portends a recession by early 2020 or mid-2020 at the latest. The bond markets continue to see falling yields. They are seeing this recession clearer than stocks – as almost always tends to be the case. Bonds are more risk averse and look more for bad news, stocks are more risk prone and focus more on good news. Brand-New: The Best Time of Day to Place a Trade? A small group of people have discovered the best time of day to trade… Thanks to an anomaly… and the best kept secret in the market. And once you discover this secret…  You'll have the chance to make 600%... 827%... and up to 1,200% gains. Money you could make in one afternoon.  Click here now to discover what the secret is... No wonder the Donald is beating on Fed Chairman Powell to turn up the stimulus full blast again… and he says at the same time that the economy is doing well and as strong as ever. Better to look at the facts than listen to the hyperbole! Harry Dent Trending Stories... More Turmoil, More Recession Fears This week wasn't any easier than the last, with more chaos throughout the markets and more concerns that a recession is surely to come. So, we're at a tipping point. In the Dark Window scenario that I've been talking about for a year now, a move upward here would be way up – maybe even... Want to Invest Like the Pros? Roll Your Bonds as the Yield Curve Flattens In the beginning of time, BC (Before Children), I traded bonds at Prudential Securities. It wasn't like the "Wolf of Wall Street" or even Bonfire of the Vanities, but it had its moments. We didn't get a lot of training. As we came in the door we were expected to know things like convexity and... Rising Temperatures Are Real Climate change has continued to be a big topic in the news, especially with record temperatures again this summer. Are humans the primary cause? When this first became a major issue many years ago, I initially was more skeptical of the human impact. I had studied long-term climate cycles and saw how much they've varied... Treasury Yields Continue To Fall … Bringing Stocks Down With Them? Every Monday, Rodney and I issue a forecast report to our Boom & Bust subscribers. We like to think of it as a preview of what's to come based on the week. Or at least a set of predictions; it's hard to anticipate exactly what is going to happen in a given week, especially in... Hope For More Migrants and Vote Out Your Congressman Last weekend I drove 400 miles to the Rio Grande Valley and stayed on South Padre Island. It's Texas' answer to Florida's beautiful beaches, and it's less than 20 miles from the southern U.S. border. We arrived late Friday evening and I realized I'd made a rookie mistake in booking the hotel. While guests gave... Economy & Markets  |  Dent Research You are receiving this e-mail as a part of your free subscription to Economy & Markets E-Letter. Remove your email from this list: Unsubscribe. 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