The Iran Crisis and
My 35-year Geopolitical Cycle
Harry Dent | May 28, 2019 | Tensions were running high between the U.S. and Iran a week ago. Our troops in Iraq and Syria were under threat and we went as far as sending the Lincoln Carrier Strike Force towards Iran. The country is threatening to stockpile nuclear materials again if Europe doesn't give it aid to offset the damage from sanctions. And John Bolton has been calling for a pre-emptive strike against Iran since his New York Times op-ed in 2015. It's seems like a gas-soaked bonfire just waiting for a match. But I don't believe war is on the cards, for many reasons, the most important of which I'll explain in a minute. Look, I'm not to say we won't hear drum beats of war or see more chest thumping. In fact, this situation, along with the continuing trade war with China will likely determine whether the next correction in my Dark Window scenario is brief and shallow or longer and deeper before the final orgasmic blow-off rally. But beyond that, this should turn out to be little more than a storm in a tea cup. World wars often follow depressions and long recessions, which shrink the economic pie and pit nations against each other. Wars are also a tempting way to stimulate an economy out of a depression, which is what Hitler did in the 1930s to return Germany to greatness. BUT, this was during the last negative arm of the Geopolitical Cycle. While we've lived through a brutal negative turn of the Geopolitical Cycle since 2001 – as I've said before, just glance at the timeline I published in Sale of a Lifetime for a shocking look at how bad it's been – we have not had a depression and the Great Recession was short lived thanks to Central Bank efforts. And, this cycle is due to bottom by late 2019/early 2020. Still, everyone I talk to is wondering… Is World War 3 Around the Corner? Will this next crash and debt deleveraging lead to a major war or World War III? I mean, I just said wars are often born out of such times… READ MORE » Trending Stories... My three children took different paths as they became young adults. They're kind enough to include my wife and me on their journeys. Through texts, emails, calls, and the occasional visit we hear about their days. From time to time, I'm reminded of the old adage that you're only as happy as your saddest child.... We're in the thick of the real estate game now. Our home is on the market, which means it's much cleaner, and more spare, than usual. When we have showings, we vacate the premises, and of course need to take the dog. That's more of a challenge than we'd thought, but she's gotten used to... Given that we're in the greatest global bubble in history, almost everything is overvalued. We're expecting central banks to keep printing money, interest rates to stay near zero, growth to continue "into a plateau of prosperity." Just like 1929. Dare us to say: it's hard to find good value investments out there. Look at this... Vista Equity Partners Chairman Robert Smith made quite a splash over the weekend when, during a commencement speech at Morehouse College, he pledged to pay off the student loan debt of every member of the class of 2019 who had accrued a tab. Smith is worth $5 billion, so he can afford to be generous.... Just like investors tend to buy high and sell low, politicians tend to react to most major issues (ahem… immigration) by doing the wrong thing at the right time. It's no secret that almost all developed countries, and China in the emerging world, are slowing in workforce and demographic growth – many outright declining. Rodney... | 
No comments:
Post a Comment