Sector Analysis and Key Events for Monday

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Summary
The Dow Future is declining 6 points to 32497. The US Dollar Index moved down 0.131 points to 91.788. Gold is declining 2.10 dollars to 1738.30. Silver has climbed 0.9976 dollars to 26.7550. The Dow Industrials eased 234.33 points, at 32627.97, while the S&P 500 moved lower 2.36 points, last seen at 3913.10. The Nasdaq Composite moved up 99.07 points to 13215.24. Streaming charts of these markets are available at MarketClub

Blog Postings and Videos
The State Of The Macro
Sunday Mar 21st

Tech Selloff Continues To Pressure Market
Saturday Mar 20th

How To Achieve A 98% Options Win Rate
Thursday Mar 18th

Key Events for Monday

8:30 AM ET. February CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index

NAI (previous 0.66)

NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.47)

10:00 AM ET. February Existing Home Sales

Existing Sales (expected 6.69M)

Existing Sales, M/M% (previous +0.6%)

Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 1.9)

Median Price (USD) (previous 303900)

Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +14.1%)

10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Financial Report - Retail Trade

10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Financial Report -

7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter International Transactions

Current Account (USD) (expected -178.5B)

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%

Latest Wk, Y/Y%

10:00 AM ET. March Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey

Mfg Idx (previous 14)

Shipments Idx (previous 12)

10:00 AM ET. February New Residential Sales

New Home Sales (previous 923K)

New Home Sales, M/M% (previous +4.3%)

New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 4.0)

1:00 PM ET. February Money Stock Measures

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

Distillate Stocks, Net Chg

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

Composite Idx

Composite Idx, W/W%

Purchase Idx-SA

Purchase Idx-SA, W/W%

Refinance Idx

Refinance Idx, W/W%

8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter State Quarterly Personal Income

8:30 AM ET. February Advance Report on Durable Goods

Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous +3.4%)

Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +2.3%)

Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +1.4%)

Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.5%)

Shipments: Cap Goods, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +2.1%)

9:45 AM ET. March US Flash Manufacturing PMI

PMI, Mfg (previous 58.5)

9:45 AM ET. March US Flash Services PMI

PMI, Services (previous 58.9)

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl)

Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)

Gasoline Stocks (Bbl)

Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)

Distillate Stocks (Bbl)

Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)

Refinery Usage

Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day)

Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg

8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter 3rd estimate GDP

Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous +4.1%)

Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.1%)

Corporate Profits, Q/Q%

PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.6%)

Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.8%)

Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +3%)

Core PCE Price Idx, Ex-Food/Energy, Q/Q% (previous +1.4%)

Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +2.4%)

8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Corporate Profits

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

Jobless Claims (previous 770K)

Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +45K)

Continuing Claims (previous 4124000)

Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -18K)

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1226.8K)

Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 202.4K)

Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 529.1K)

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1782B)

Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -11B)

11:00 AM ET. March Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing

Mfg Activity Idx (previous 26)

6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 44)

Mfg Composite Idx (previous 24)

6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 34)

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank

8:30 AM ET. February Personal Income & Outlays

Personal Income, M/M% (previous +10%)

Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous +2.4%)

PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.5%)

PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.5%)

8:30 AM ET. February Advance Economic Indicators Report

10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter GDP by State

10:00 AM ET. February State Employment and Unemployment

10:00 AM ET. March-January University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final

End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 76.8)

End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 70.7)

12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.3%)

5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.7%)

End-Mo Current Idx (previous 86.2)



 
Currencies Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
US DOLLAR INDEX 91.788 -0.131 -0.14%
Invesco DB US Dollar Index 24.78 +0.01 +0.04%
US Dollar/Canadian Dollar 1.248005 -0.002580 -0.21%
Euro/US Dollar 1.19249 +0.00296 +0.25%
JAPANESE YEN Apr 2021 0.009199 +0.000012 +0.13%
SWISS FRANC Jun 2021 1.0828 +0.0039 +0.36%
US Dollar/Hong Kong Dollar 7.766250 +0.001100 +0.01%
CURRENCIES:http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"

The June Dollar closed slightly higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing 91.29 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the September-January-decline crossing at 93.43 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the September-January-decline crossing at 92.41. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-January-decline crossing at 93.43. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing 91.29. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing 90.85.

The June Euro closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.27 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 117.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.27. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.02. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 118.61. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 117.85.

The June British Pound closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 1.4009 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3819 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.4009. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4245. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3819. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1.3672.

The June Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0893 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-January-rally crossing at 1.0586 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.0876. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0893. First support is March's low crossing at 1.0695. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-January-rally crossing at 1.0586.

The June Canadian Dollar closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.54 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If June extends the rally off January's low, the February-2018 high crossing at 82.27 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.52. Second resistance is the February-2018 high crossing at 82.27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.54. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.98.

The June Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off January's high, last-March's low crossing at 0.0911 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0930 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0930. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 0.0941. First support is Monday's low crossing at 0.0915. Second support is last-March's low crossing at 0.0911.



 
Energy Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
CRUDE OIL Apr 2021 61.36 -0.06 -0.10%
NY HARBOR ULSD HEATING OIL Apr 2021 1.8093 -0.0130 -0.71%
NATURAL GAS Apr 2021 2.503 -0.032 -1.26%
RBOB GASOLINE Apr 2021 1.9345 -0.0086 -0.44%
Invesco DWA Energy Momentum ETF 25.2306 0.0000 0.00%
United States Gasoline 31.1700 +0.3700 +1.19%

ENERGIES

April crude oil posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's sharp decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $58.29 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $64.12 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at $67.98. Second resistance is the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $58.29. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $55.58.

April heating oil posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $175.09 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $190.54 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at $198.68. Second resistance is the the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $200.04. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $175.09. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $163.77.

April unleaded gas posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $183.53 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $206.07 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $217.00. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $221.41. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $183.53. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $176.83.

April Henry natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-February-rally crossing at 2.406 is the next upside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.695 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.588. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.695. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 2.422. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-February rally crossing at 2.406.



 
Food Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
COFFEE MAY 2021 129.2 +0.2 +0.16%
SUGAR #11 WORLD MAY 2021 15.81 +0.05 +0.32%
SUGAR #16 MAY 2021 31.00 +0.05 +0.16%
ORANGE JUICE - A MAY 2021 115.50 -1.05 -0.90%
IPATH SER B BLOOMBERG SUGAR SUBINDEX TOTAL RETURN 48.9100 -0.7842 -1.59%
IPATH SER B BLOOMBERG SOFTS SUBINDEX TOTAL RETURN 45.50 -0.29 -0.65%

FOOD & FIBER

May coffee closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.91 would open the door for a possible test of February's low crossing at 12.21. If May extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 140.45 is the next upside target.

May cocoa closed sharply lower on Friday as it extends the decline off March's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 23.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.64 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.

May sugar closed lower on Friday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.79 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.35 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.

May cotton closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.36 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 82.87 would open the door for a possible test of February's low crossing at 81.06.



IS THE STOCK MARKET READY TO EXPLODE?

The vaccine is working. 1.9 trillion in stimulus has passed congress. Take advantage of a potentially historic second quarter of 2021. If the market explodes, be positioned properly.


 
Grains Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
CORN May 2021 554.50 -3.25 -0.58%
OATS May 2021 365.50 -0.50 -0.14%
WHEAT May 2021 625.00 -2.00 -0.32%
Teucrium Corn Fund ETV 16.970 +0.140 +0.83%
IPATH SER B BLOOMBERG GRAINS SUBINDEX TOTAL RETURN 58.8500 +0.5608 +0.95%
ELEMENTS Linked to the ICE BofAML Commodity Index eXtra Grains Total Return 3.86 +0.10 +2.56%
SOYBEANS May 2021 1416.00 -0.25 -0.02%
SOYBEAN (MINI) May 2021 1415.875 -0.375 -0.03%
SOYBEAN MEAL May 2021 405.0 -2.9 -0.71%
Teucrium Soybean Fund ETV 20.9300 +0.2100 +1.00%

GRAINS

May Corn closed up a $0.11 1/4-cents at $5.57 3/4.

May corn closed sharply higher on Friday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last-Friday's low, February's high crossing at $5.72. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $5.31 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 25% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at $5.14. First resistance is February's high crossing at $5.72. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $6.36. First support is last-Friday's slow crossing at $5.31. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at $5.14.

May wheat closed down $0.03 1/2-cents at $6.27.

May wheat closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at $6.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.53 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.53 1/2. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $6.88 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at $6.21 3/4. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at $6.17.

May Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.01 3/4-cents at $5.85 1/2.

May Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off February's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.52 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.26 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.06. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.26 3/4. First support is the 38% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.79. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.52 3/4.

May Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.01 1/2-cents at $6.27.

May Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at $6.19 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.40 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at $6.52 1/4. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $6.58 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at $6.21. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at $6.19 3/4.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

May soybeans closed up $0.24 1/4-cents at $14.16 1/2.

May soybeans closed higher on Friday as it erased most of Thursday's loss. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.89 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off January's low, last-April's, psychological resistance crossing at $15.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $14.60. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $15.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.89 1/2. Second support is the February 11th low crossing at $13.36 3/4.

May soybean meal closed up $9.70 to $407.90.

May soybean meal closed sharply higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $414.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $376.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $414.20. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $426.30. First support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $396.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $376.30.

May soybean oil closed up 35-pts. at 53.87.

May soybean oil closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 51.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off October's low, the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 58.14 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 55.75. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 58.14. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 51.90. Second support is March's low crossing at 48.62.



 
Indexes Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
Dow Jones Industrial Average 32627.97 -234.33 -0.72%
NASDAQ Composite 13215.24 +99.07 +0.75%
S&P 500 3913.10 -2.36 -0.06%
SPDR S&P 500 389.5800 -0.6222 -0.16%
iShares Russell 2000 ETF 226.98 +1.74 +0.77%

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The Dow closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off Thursday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off January's low into uncharted territory, upside targets hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 31,977.94 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 33,227.78. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 32,558.46. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31,977.94.

The June NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off Tuesday's high, March's low crossing at 12,200.00 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 13,287.25 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the February 25th high crossing at 13,337.50. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 13,888.00. First support is today's low crossing at 12,681.75. Second support is March's low crossing at 12,200.00.

The June S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3847.53 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3978.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3847.53. Second support is March's low crossing at 3710.50.



 
Interest Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
T-BONDS Mar 2021 155.59375 -0.28125 -0.18%
iShares Floating Rate Bond ETF 50.738 -0.008 -0.02%
5 YEAR T-NOTES Mar 2021 124.304688 +0.164063 +0.13%
ULTRA T-BONDS Mar 2021 182.15625 +0.56250 +0.31%
Invesco Senior Loan Portf 22.185 +0.025 +0.11%

INTEREST RATES

June T-bonds closed up 2/32's at 154-02.

June T-bonds closed slightly lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off November's high, the June-2019 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 152-27 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 157-19 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 157-19. Second resistance is the February 26th high crossing at 161-02. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 153-07. Second support is the June-2019 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 152-27.

June T-notes closed down 15-pts. At 131.065.

June T-notes closed slightly higher on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off the January 27th high, the February-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 130.070 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.194 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.194. Second resistance is the March 2nd high crossing at 133.230. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 131.000. Second support is the February-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 130.070.



 
Livestock Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
FEEDER CATTLE Mar 2021 134.675 -0.950 -0.71%
LEAN HOGS Apr 2021 94.250 +0.200 +0.21%
LIVE CATTLE Apr 2021 118.400 -0.150 -0.13%
IPATH SER B BLOOMBERG LIVESTOCK SUBINDEX TOTAL RETURN 37.095 -0.035 -0.09%

LIVESTOCK

April hogs closed down $0.05 at $94.25.

April hogs closed slightly lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the April-2019 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $99.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $89.32 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $95.73. Second resistance is the April-2019 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $99.83. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $91.30. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $89.32.

April cattle closed down $0.20 at $118.38.

April cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that low might be in or is near. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-February-rally crossing at $117.72 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.87 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.87. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $126.70. First support is today's low crossing at $118.00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-February-rally crossing at $117.72.

April Feeder cattle closed down $2.00 at $139.43.

April Feeder cattle closed sharply lower for the second day in a row on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, March's low crossing at $137.22 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at $147.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 145.83. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $147.00. First support is today's low crossing at 138.43. Second support is March's low crossing at $137.22.



 
Metals Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
GOLD Mar 2021 1741.4 -0.3 -0.02%
SPDR Gold Trust 163.2700 +0.7100 +0.43%
SILVER Mar 2021 25.690 -0.602 -2.29%
PALLADIUM Mar 2021 2626.6 +95.4 +3.87%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares 20.69 -0.35 -1.69%
Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund 48.8001 +0.2122 +0.43%

PRECIOUS METALS

April gold closed higher on Friday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1735.50 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1796.80 is the next upside target. If April resumes the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1634.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $1754.20. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1796.80. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1634.70. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1533.30.

May silver closed slightly lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.451 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 24.059 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.451. Second resistance is the February 23rd high crossing at 28.470. First support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 25.111. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 24.059.

May copper closed slightly higher on Friday as it extends this month's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 437.55 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 385.34 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 422.75. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 437.55. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 385.34. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 381.34.



 
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