Sector Analysis and Key Events for Monday

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Summary
The Dow Future is trending lower 176 points to 31257. The US Dollar Index trended higher 0.053 points to 90.417. Gold has gained 11.51 dollars to 1795.70. Silver is trending lower 0.0165 dollars to 27.4340. The Dow Industrials trended higher 0.98 points, at 31494.32, while the S&P 500 trended lower by 7.26 points, last seen at 3906.71. The Nasdaq Composite trended higher 9.10 points to 13874.46. Streaming charts of these markets are available at MarketClub

Blog Postings and Videos
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Friday Feb 19th

World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, February 2021
Friday Feb 19th

Key Events for Monday

8:30 AM ET. January CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index

NAI (previous 0.52)

NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.61)

10:00 AM ET. January Leading Indicators

Leading Index, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

Leading Index (previous 109.5)

Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

10:30 AM ET. February Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

Business Activity (previous 7.0)

Mfg Production Idx (previous

7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -0.9%)

Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +2.4%)

Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +4.0%)

9:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter U.S. Quarterly House Price Index

9:00 AM ET. December U.S. Monthly House Price Index

9:00 AM ET. December S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices

10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +1.2%)

10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +8.8%)

20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +1.1%)

20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +9.1%)

National Idx, M/M% (previous +1.1%)

National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +9.5%)

10:00 AM ET. February Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey

Mfg Idx (previous 14)

Shipments Idx (previous 10

10:00 AM ET. February Consumer Confidence Index

Cons Conf Idx (previous 89.3)

Expectation Idx (previous 92.5)

Present Situation Idx (previous 84.4)

1:00 PM ET. January Money Stock Measures

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -5.8M)

Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.9M)

Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.0M)

5:00 PM ET. SEC Closed

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

Composite Idx (previous 892.6)

Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -5.1%)

Purchase Idx-SA (previous 299.5)

Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -6.1%)

Refinance Idx (previous 4337.0)

Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -4.7%)

10:00 AM ET. January New Residential Sales

New Home Sales (previous 842K)

New Home Sales, M/M% (previous +1.6%)

New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 4.3)

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 461.757M)

Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -7.257M)

Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 257.084M)

Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.672M)

Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 157.684M)

Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.422M)

Refinery Usage (previous 83.1%)

Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.668M)

Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous

8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter 2nd estimate GDP

Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous +4.0%)

Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.0%)

Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous +36.1%)

PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.5%)

Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.7%)

Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +3.0%)

Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.4%)

Consumer Spending, Q/Q% (previous +2.5%)

8:30 AM ET. January Advance Report on Durable Goods

Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0.5%)

Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.7%)

Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.6%)

Shipments: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.5%)

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

Jobless Claims (previous 861K)

Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +13K)

Continuing Claims (previous 4494000)

Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -64K)

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

Corn (Metric Tons)

Soybeans (Metric Tons)

Wheat (Metric Tons)

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

10:00 AM ET. January Pending Home Sales Index

Pending Home Sales (previous 125.5)

Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous -0.3%)

Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous +21.4%)

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 281B)

Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -237B)

11:00 AM ET. February Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing

Mfg Activity Idx (previous 22)

6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 46)

Mfg Composite Idx (previous 17)

6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 24)

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock

8:30 AM ET. January Personal Income & Outlays

Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.6%)

Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous -0.2%)

PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.3%)

PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.5%)

8:30 AM ET. January Advance Economic Indicators Report

9:45 AM ET. February Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI

PMI-Adj (previous 63.8)

10:00 AM ET. February University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final

End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 79.0)

End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 74.0)

12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.0%)

5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.7%)

End-Mo Current Idx (previous 86.7)

3:00 PM ET. January Agricultural Prices

Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +0.8%)



 
Currencies Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
US DOLLAR INDEX 90.417 +0.053 +0.06%
Invesco DB US Dollar Index 24.3550 -0.0550 -0.23%
US Dollar/Canadian Dollar 1.262550 +0.002285 +0.18%
Euro/US Dollar 1.213840 +0.001495 +0.12%
JAPANESE YEN Mar 2021 0.009473 -0.000008 -0.08%
SWISS FRANC Mar 2021 1.1150 -0.0008 -0.07%
US Dollar/Hong Kong Dollar 7.75355 +0.00040 +0.01%
CURRENCIES:http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"

The March Dollar closed lower on Friday erasing all of the gains off Tuesday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off February's high, January's low crossing 89.16 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off January's low, February's high crossing at 91.6 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 91.61. Second resistance is the November 30th high crossing at 91.96. First support is the January 21st low crossing 90.03. Second support is January's low crossing at 89.16.

The March Euro closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off Tuesday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.68 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the November 23rd low crossing at 118.33 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.68. Second resistance is the January 22nd high crossing at 122.03. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 120.29. Second support is February's low crossing at 119.60.

The March British Pound closed higher on Friday as it extended the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2020-decline crossing at 1.4156 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3772 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.4039. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2020-decline crossing at 1.4156. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3772. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3627.

The March Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Friday as it remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.1186. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off Tuesday's high, February's low crossing at 1.1064 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1264 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1201. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1264. First support is February's low crossing at 1.1064. Second support is the November 30th low crossing at 1.1036.

The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.51 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.47 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 79.44. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.51. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.47. Second support is January's low crossing at 77.63.

The March Japanese Yen closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0954 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 0.0934 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0950. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0954. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 0.0942. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 0.0934.



 
Energy Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
CRUDE OIL Mar 2021 59.86 +0.62 +1.05%
NY HARBOR ULSD HEATING OIL Mar 2021 1.8194 -0.0035 -0.19%
NATURAL GAS Mar 2021 2.943 -0.126 -4.09%
RBOB GASOLINE Mar 2021 1.7976 -0.0093 -0.52%
Invesco DWA Energy Momentum ETF 23.3038 +0.5365 +2.30%
United States Gasoline 30.060 +0.040 +0.13%

ENERGIES

April crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $56.18 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off November's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $67.23 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $62.15. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $67.23. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $58.96. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $56.18.

April heating oil closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $200.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $169.69 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement 1evel of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $183.37. Second resistance is the the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $200.04. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $176.96. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $169.69.

April unleaded gas closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $204.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $175.36 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $192.47. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $204.11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 182.19. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $175.36.

April Henry natural gas closed higher on Friday leaving yesterday's key reversal down unconfirmed. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, the October-2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.396 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.808 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 3.060. Second resistance is the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.396. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.808. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.685.



 
Food Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
COFFEE MARCH 2021 127.0 -0.5 -0.39%
SUGAR #11 WORLD MARCH 2021 17.88 +0.09 +0.51%
SUGAR #16 MAY 2021 29.88 +0.03 +0.10%
ORANGE JUICE - A MARCH 2021 109.85 +0.50 +0.46%
IPATH SER B BLOOMBERG SUGAR SUBINDEX TOTAL RETURN 53.040 +1.179 +2.22%
IPATH SER B BLOOMBERG SOFTS SUBINDEX TOTAL RETURN 47.0200 +0.4400 +0.94%

FOOD & FIBER

May coffee closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, January's high crossing at 13.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.59 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.

May cocoa closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.76 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends Wednesday's decline, the November 12th low crossing at 23.27 is the next downside target.

May sugar gapped up and closed higher on Friday and posted a new contract high as it extends the rally off last-April's low. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last-April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.57 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.

March cotton closed higher on Friday as it extends this month's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off April's low, the July-2018 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 89.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 83.97 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.



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Grains Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
CORN Mar 2021 547.00 +4.25 +0.78%
OATS Mar 2021 347.00 -1.50 -0.43%
WHEAT Mar 2021 653.25 +2.50 +0.38%
Teucrium Corn Fund ETV 16.9986 -0.0714 -0.42%
IPATH SER B BLOOMBERG GRAINS SUBINDEX TOTAL RETURN 58.8750 -0.2561 -0.43%
ELEMENTS Linked to the ICE BofAML Commodity Index eXtra Grains Total Return 3.9987 -0.2113 -5.14%
SOYBEANS Mar 2021 1377.00 -0.25 -0.02%
SOYBEAN (MINI) Mar 2021 1378.125 +0.875 +0.06%
SOYBEAN MEAL Mar 2021 423.1 -1.2 -0.28%
Teucrium Soybean Fund ETV 20.6650 +0.1350 +0.65%

GRAINS

March Corn closed down $0.07 1/2-cents at $5.42 3/4.

March corn closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews last-week's decline, the 25% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at $5.13 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $5.72 1/4 are needed to renew the rally off August's low. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $5.72 1/4 is the next upside target. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $6.36. First support is the 25% retracement level of the August-January-rally crossing at $5.13 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.99 1/4.

March wheat closed down $0.11 3/4-cents at $6.50 3/4.

March wheat closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. This week's breakout above last-Tuesday's high marked an upside breakout of the January-February ascending triangle and opened the door for a test of January's high crossing at $6.93. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.37 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is January's high crossing at $6.93. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.34 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.37 1/2. Second support is the December 28th crossing at $6.07.

March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.05-cents at $6.31 3/4.

March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this winter's rally, the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.06 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $6.60. Second resistance is the December-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.05 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.06 3/4. Second support is the January 8th low crossing at $5.87 1/4.

March Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.03-cents at $6.28 3/4.

March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If March renews the rally off December's low, January's high crossing at $6.53 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below February's low crossing at $6.09 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.05 3/4. First resistance is January's high crossing at crossing at $6.53 1/2. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $6.58. First support is the January 25th low crossing at $6.05. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.05 3/4.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

March soybeans closed up $0.02 1/4-cents at $13.77 1/4.

March soybeans closed higher on Friday while extending the trading range of the past four-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at $14.36 1/2 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.21 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $14.36 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly chart crossing at $15.39 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.21 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at $12.98.

March soybean meal closed down $1.60 to $424.30.

March soybean meal closed lower on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $418.80 would renew the decline off January's high while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at $443.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at $471.40. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $478.40. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $418.80. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $401.40.

March soybean oil closed up 64 pts. at 47.55.

March soybean oil closed higher on Friday as it posted a new contract high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline the monthly continuation chart crossing at 47.97 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 45.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 47.85. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline the monthly continuation chart crossing at 47.97. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 45.22. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 42.72.



 
Indexes Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
Dow Jones Industrial Average 31494.32 +0.98 0.00%
NASDAQ Composite 13874.46 +9.10 +0.07%
S&P 500 3906.71 -7.26 -0.19%
SPDR S&P 500 389.99 -0.73 -0.19%
iShares Russell 2000 ETF 225.21 +4.62 +2.05%

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The Dow closed modestly lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this month's rally into uncharted territory making upside targets hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 31,041.99 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 31,647.53. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31,041.99. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 30,719.53.

The March NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off Tuesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,497.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off September's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 13,900.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,497.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,066.68.

The March S&P 500 closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off Tuesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3856.79 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3959.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3856.79. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3781.95.



 
Interest Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
T-BONDS Mar 2021 162.43750 -0.65625 -0.40%
iShares Floating Rate Bond ETF 50.791 +0.007 +0.01%
5 YEAR T-NOTES Mar 2021 125.218750 -0.132813 -0.11%
ULTRA T-BONDS Mar 2021 192.59375 -1.00000 -0.52%
Invesco Senior Loan Portf 22.355 +0.005 +0.02%

INTEREST RATES

March T-bonds closed down 1-10/32's at 163-06.

March T-bonds closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off the January 28th high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 rally crossing at 157-20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 167-07 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 167-07. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 169-20. First support is today's low crossing at 162-26. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 rally crossing at 157-20.

March T-notes closed down 120-pts. at 135.115.

March T-notes closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off last-August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off the January 27th high, the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 134.305 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.233 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 136.104. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.233. First support is today's low crossing at 135.105. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the continuation chart crossing at 134.305.



 
Livestock Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
FEEDER CATTLE Mar 2021 139.125 +1.400 +1.01%
LEAN HOGS Apr 2021 84.500 -0.125 -0.15%
LIVE CATTLE Feb 2021 115.925 +0.400 +0.35%
IPATH SER B BLOOMBERG LIVESTOCK SUBINDEX TOTAL RETURN 37.0300 +0.1100 +0.30%

LIVESTOCK

April hogs closed down $0.43 at $84.50.

April hogs closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $80.22 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $92.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $87.25. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $92.25. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $83.32. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $80.22.

April cattle closed up $0.75 at $123.68

April cattle closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If April extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.17 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off October's low, the December-2019 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $127.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $126.70. Second resistance is the December-2019 high crossing at $127.90. First support is February's low crossing at $121.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.17.

April Feeder cattle closed up $0.93 at $142.68.

April Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $141.79 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April resumes the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at $147.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at $147.00. Second resistance is the August-2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $148.40. First support is February's low crossing at $140.05. Second support is January's low crossing at $135.03.



 
Metals Snapshot
Symbol Last Change %
GOLD Feb 2021 1788.6 +12.8 +0.72%
SPDR Gold Trust 166.98 +0.66 +0.40%
SILVER Feb 2021 27.252 +0.270 +0.99%
PALLADIUM Mar 2021 2378.5 +9.3 +0.39%
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares 22.820 +0.100 +0.44%
Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund 50.2213 +0.2652 +0.53%

PRECIOUS METALS

April gold closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1725.30. is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1856.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1827.20. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1956.30. First support is today's low crossing at $1759.00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1725.30.

March silver closed higher on Friday as it extended the trading range of the past six-days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, February's high crossing at 30.350 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.129 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 30.350. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.129. Second support is the January 27th low crossing at 24.715.

March copper closed sharply higher on Friday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2011-2016-low crossing at 429.67 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 368.59 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 409.10. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2011-2016-low crossing at 429.67. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 379.61. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 368.59.



 
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