Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, if a company's payout ratio was more than 75%, it received a penalty in its dividend safety rating. Any stock with a payout ratio less than 75% was considered safe. If I had written up Dow Chemical in January, I would have said that with a 57% projected payout ratio, the company could easily afford the dividend. However, as the economy tanked and many companies slashed their dividends, I took a much more conservative approach with SafetyNet Pro. I lowered the threshold for a ratings penalty to a 50% payout ratio instead of 75%. I'd rather be too careful of a company cutting its dividend than rate a stock too high and have investors surprised by a reduction in the payout. Dow pays a quarterly dividend of $0.70 per share, which comes out to a robust 6.7% yield. It could easily reduce the dividend and still have an attractive yield for shareholders. But with a very short track record and a new conservative dividend safety model, Dow Chemical's dividend can't be considered safe. Interestingly, if I had written this article in January, the rating would have been a "C." But the new, stricter model takes it all the way down to an "F." Keep in mind, I'm not saying a cut is imminent - but if free cash flow comes in below expectations, it wouldn't surprise me if the company did in fact reduce the dividend in 2021. Dividend Safety Rating: F If you have a stock whose dividend safety you'd like me to analyze, leave the ticker symbol in the comments section. Good investing, Marc |
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