NetApp (Nasdaq: NTAP) is a cloud storage and data management company based in Silicon Valley. But unlike most tech companies, this one has a robust 4.5% dividend yield. Can tech investors expect to continue to receive their $0.48 per share quarterly dividend? A big red flag is that NetApp's free cash flow is headed in the wrong direction. In 2019, it declined slightly to $1.17 billion from $1.33 billion the year before. This year, free cash flow is projected to drop to $936 million, and then it's expected to drop all the way down to $714 million in 2021. This year, NetApp is forecast to pay $439 million in dividends, or 60% of its free cash flow. In normal, nonpandemic times, that would be perfectly okay. But during the pandemic, I've taken my threshold for an acceptable payout ratio down to 50%. (A company's payout ratio is the percentage of free cash flow that it pays in dividends.) The reason I lowered the threshold from 75% to 50% is because the pandemic has created havoc for many businesses. Across the board, management teams understandably feel the need to conserve cash. I want to make sure we are not caught by surprise, assuming a dividend is safe only to see it cut later. |
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