Summary
The Dow Future has advanced 84 points to 25130. The US Dollar Index gained 0.410 points to 97.197. Gold is trending higher 2.480 dollars to 1237.500. Silver is trending higher 0.0268 dollars to 14.4803. The Dow Industrials edged lower 311.77 points, at 25027.07, while the S&P 500 declined 37.70 points, last seen at 2700.06. The Nasdaq Composite eased 283.08 points to 7158.43. Streaming charts of these markets are available at MarketClub
Key Events for Wednesday
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey Composite Idx (previous 333.7) Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +5.5%) Purchase Idx-SA (previous 247.8) Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +8.8%) Refinance Idx (previous 787.7) Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +0.5%) 8:15 AM ET. November ADP National Employment Report Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (previous +227000) 8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Revised Productivity & Costs Non-Farm Productivity (previous +2.9%) Unit Labor Costs (previous -1.0%) 9:45 AM ET. November US Services PMI PMI, Services (previous 54.8) 10:00 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Quarterly Services 10:00 AM ET. November Online Help Wanted Index 10:00 AM ET. November ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business Non-Mfg Composite Idx (previous 60.3) Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 62.5) Prices Idx (previous 61.7) Employment Idx (previous 59.7) New Orders Idx (previous 61.5) 10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 450.485M) Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.577M) Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 224.551M) Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.764M) Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 121.801M) Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.61M) Refinery Usage (previous 95.6%) Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.485M) Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.779M) 11:00 AM ET. November Global Services PMI PMI, Services (previous 53.4) 2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige 7:30 AM ET. November Challenger Job-Cut Report Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +36.8%) 8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1266.5K) Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 628.8K) Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 377.1K) 8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims Jobless Claims (previous 234K) Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +10K) Continuing Claims (previous 1710000) Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +50K) 8:30 AM ET. October U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services Trade Balance (USD) (previous -54.02B) Exports (USD) (previous 212.57B) Exports, M/M% (previous +1.5%) Imports (USD) (previous 266.58B) Imports, M/M% (previous +1.5%) 9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 10:00 AM ET. October Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3) Total Orders, M/M% (previous +0.7%) Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0.0%) Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.4%) Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +0.8%) Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +0.7%) 10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3054B) Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -59B) 12:00 PM ET. November Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index 4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures 4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings 4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank 8:30 AM ET. November U.S. Employment Report Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +250K) Unemployment Rate (previous 3.7%) Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 27.30) Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.05) Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.18%) Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +3.1%) Overall Workweek (previous 34.5) Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.1) Government Payrolls (previous +4K) Private Payroll (previous +246K) Participation Rate (previous 62.9%) Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg 10:00 AM ET. December University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 98.3) Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 88.7) Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 113.2) 10:00 AM ET. October Monthly Wholesale Trade Inventories, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
The March Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.46 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 97.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 96.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.46. Second support is November's low crossing at 94.91. The March Euro was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.85 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.85. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 116.45. First support is November's low crossing at 113.54. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94. The March British Pound was higher overnight. The high-range trade in the overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2665 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2944 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2944. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3055. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.2772. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2665. The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past two-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0188 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0116 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0188. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0291. First support is November's low crossing at 1.0018. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9833. The March Canadian Dollar was lower in overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off October's high, the May-2017 low crossing at 73.67 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.54 is the next upside target. First resistance is the November 16th reaction high crossing at 76.33. Second resistance is the 50-day crossing at 76.54. First support is November's low crossing at 75.04. Second support is weekly support crossing at 73.67. The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above November's high crossing at 0.0899 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If March renews the decline off October's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 0.0877 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 0.0899. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 0.0907. First support is November's low crossing at 0.0885. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 0.0877.
January crude oil were steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.36 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January renews the decline off October's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 46.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.36. Second resistance is the November 16th reaction high crossing at 58.16. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 49.96. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 46.00. January heating oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 200.50 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 173.08 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 200.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 219.38. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 178.37. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 173.08. January unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 150.88 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the June-2017 low crossing at 129.88 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 150.88. Second resistance is the November 16th reaction high crossing at 159.94. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 135.41. Second support is the June-2017 low crossing at 129.88. January Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it continues to form a symmetrical triangle. The high-range late-overnight trade leaves the door open for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. A breakout in either direction of the symmetrical triangle will point the direction of the next trending move. If January resumes the rally off September's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2016-decline crossing at 5.336 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.243 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 4.964. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of 2008-2016-decline crossing at 5.336. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.243. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.688.
SOFTS: March sugar closed down 19 points at 12.72 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The sugar bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. March coffee closed down 115 points at 106.65 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a two-month low today. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. March cocoa closed down $28 at $2,175 a ton today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The cocoa bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. March cotton closed down 31 points at 79.64 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low and filled Monday's upside gap-which is a bearish chart clue that suggests the bulls quickly have become exhausted after Monday's early surge. The cotton bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. January orange juice closed up 80 points at $1.4410 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. January lumber futures closed down $6.00 at $328.80 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage.
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March corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's gains. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 3.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.73 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 3.90. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 3.98 3/4. First support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.54 3/4. March wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.23 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off October's high, the December-2017 low crossing at 4.82 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.23 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.46 1/2. First support is November's low crossing at 5.03 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2017-2018-rally crossing at 5.01. March Kansas City Wheat closed down 1 1/4-cents at 5.05 1/4. March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.23 1/4 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 4.53 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.23 1/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. First support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.53. March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.87 1/4 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off October's high, July's low crossing at 5.59 is the next downside target. If First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.87 1/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.93. First support is November's low crossing at 5.67 1/2. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.59. SOYBEAN COMPLEX?http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains" January soybeans was slightly lower overnight as it consolidated some of this week's gains. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.78 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If January extends this week's rally, the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.45 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.17. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.45 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.78 3/4. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at 8.57. March soybean meal was slightly lower overnight as it consolidated some of this week's gains. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above November's high crossing at 319.70 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 303.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 319.70. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. First support is November's low crossing at 305.30. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.40. March soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.93 could open the door for a larger-degree rally off November's low. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 28.15 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.93. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 30.50. First support is November's low crossing at 27.42. Second support is weekly support crossing at 26.88.
GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed solidly lower today. World stock markets were also mostly lower overnight. The initial trader and investor euphoria over a U.S.-China trade dispute cease-fire for 90 days has rapidly dissipated. The marketplace has quickly realized "the devil is in the details" on getting this matter resolved. The matter will likely continue to produce uncertainty in markets, with comments from U.S. and China government officials continuing to tweak the markets-just like was the case before the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi last weekend. A feature in the marketplace just recently is sharply falling U.S. Treasury yields (rising prices). The five-year T-Note yield is presently below the two-year maturity. Notions of a less hawkish Federal Reserve in the coming months have helped to boost T-Bond and T-Note prices, and the fears of an inverted yield curve have spooked the stock market. The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. The U.S.-China trade truce has boosted the world's secondary currency markets early this week, which in turn is pressuring the greenback. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices were slightly higher and trading around $53.00 a barrel. Some short covering is seen in the oil market recently, following steep losses. The OPEC oil cartel will meet in Vienna, Austria on Thursday. Reports said Russian and Saudi Arabian officials plan to extend production cuts. Also, Canada will curtail its crude production. In overnight news, the Euro zone producer price index for October came in at up 0.8% from September and up 4.9%, year-on-year. Those numbers were hotter than expected. The death of former U.S. President George H.W. Bush and a national day of mourning Wednesday will close the U.S. stock and financial markets. Other U.S. futures markets will remain open as normal.
March U.S. T-Bonds closed up 2 full points and 4/32 at 142 21/32 today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a three-month high. The bond market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A steep four- week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. March U.S. T Notes closed up 20.0 32nds at 120.07.0 today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a 3.5- month high. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Prices are in a steep four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
LIVESTOCK: February live cattle closed up $1.50 at $121.67 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a four-week high today. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and gained fresh power today. January feeder cattle closed up $0.20 at $144.70 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The feeder cattle market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. February lean hogs closed down $1.17 at $65.72 today. Prices closed nearer the session low on more profit taking. The hog market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A bullish symmetrical triangle pattern has formed on the daily bar chart.
February gold was higher overnight as it extends its rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at 1252.00 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1216.80 would open the door for a possible test of November's low crossing at 1202.40. First resistance is October's high crossing at 1252.00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1259.00. First support is November's low crossing at 1202.40. Second support is October's low crossing at 1192.00. March silver was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 14.660 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of October's high crossing at 15.055. If March resumes the decline off November's high, monthly support crossing at 13.620 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 15.055. Second resistance is the August 28th reaction high crossing at 15.175. First support is November's low crossing at 13.985. Second support is monthly support crossing at 13.620. March copper was slightly higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 272.50 would temper the friendly outlook. If March resumes the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 288.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 288.80. Second resistance is the July 5th gap crossing at 295.45. First support is November's low crossing at 266.20. Second support is September's low crossing at 260.30.
| | | Top Stocks | | # | symbol | name | last | net | % | volume | score | triangles | | | 1. | AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc | 21.11 | -0.32 | -1.49% | 125,209,689 | +90 |    | Entry Signal | | 2. | CRON | Cronos Group, Inc | 10.73 | +1.82 | +20.43% | 25,664,734 | +90 | | Entry Signal | | 3. | PFE | Pfizer, Inc | 45.165 | -0.825 | -1.81% | 20,020,247 | +90 | | Entry Signal | | 4. | ABX | Barrick Gold Corp | 13.140 | +0.150 | +1.15% | 18,002,444 | +90 | | Entry Signal | | 5. | PBR | Petroleo Brasileiro SA | 14.670 | -0.370 | -2.58% | 17,666,506 | +90 | | Entry Signal | | 6. | AFSI | AmTrust Financial Services, Inc | 14.76 | +0.77 | +5.22% | 17,555,388 | +90 | | Entry Signal | | 7. | NBEV | New Age Beverages Corp | 4.57 | +0.15 | +3.39% | 12,516,116 | +90 | | Entry Signal | | 8. | GM | General Motors Co | 36.52 | -1.93 | -5.25% | 12,093,748 | +90 | | Entry Signal | | 9. | TSRO | TESARO, Inc | 73.76 | +27.99 | +61.15% | 11,883,455 | +90 | | Entry Signal | | 10. | NWL | Newell Brands, Inc | 23.52 | -0.65 | -2.73% | 10,456,475 | +90 | | Entry Signal | | | | | Top Futures | | # | symbol | name | last | net | % | volume | score | triangles | | | 1. | ZF.H19 | 5 YEAR T-NOTES Mar 2019 | 113.210938 | +0.054688 | +0.05% | 1,386,559 | +100 | | Entry Signal | | 2. | ZB.H19 | T-BONDS Mar 2019 | 142.28125 | +0.12500 | +0.09% | 578,748 | +100 | | Entry Signal | | 3. | TN.H19 | ULTRA 10 YEAR T-NOTES Mar 2019 | 127.625000 | +0.093750 | +0.07% | 319,674 | +100 | | Entry Signal | | 4. | GE.H21 | EURODOLLAR Mar 2021 | 97.085 | +0.020 | +0.02% | 159,607 | +100 | | Entry Signal | | 5. | GE.M21 | EURODOLLAR Jun 2021 | 97.105 | +0.020 | +0.02% | 152,999 | +100 | | Entry Signal | | 6. | GE.U21 | EURODOLLAR Sep 2021 | 97.115 | +0.020 | +0.02% | 148,443 | +100 | | Entry Signal | | 7. | GE.Z21 | EURODOLLAR Dec 2021 | 97.105 | +0.015 | +0.02% | 143,510 | +100 | | Entry Signal | | 8. | ZN.Z18 | 10 YEAR T-NOTES Dec 2018 | 120.171875 | +0.078125 | +0.07% | 122,618 | +100 | | Entry Signal | | 9. | ZS.F19 | SOYBEANS Jan 2019 | 911.25 | -0.50 | -0.06% | 96,592 | +100 | | Entry Signal | | 10. | GE.H22 | EURODOLLAR Mar 2022 | 97.110 | +0.015 | +0.02% | 70,815 | +100 | | Entry Signal | |
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