Too Late? When it comes to Bitcoin, massive numbers of folks were willing to pay more than $40,000 for a single coin this month. And now that our imaginary store has put coins on sale, a record number of folks are lining up to pay $35,000. The rush has never been so strong. Sitting on our bench outside the store, we have never seen such a huge throng of buyers. More and more folks are showing up every minute. Many of them - perhaps like you - are wondering if they arrived too late. My answer is simple. No. When volume is this rich... it's never too late. But you have to be keen-eyed and ready to move. Let me explain... Castles in the Sky To ensure my logic was well-honed, I thumbed through Burton Malkiel's famed book A Random Walk Down Wall Street. It sits on the edge of my desk. Its thickness is perfect for propping up my camera when I record videos for my subscribers. Much of the book describes the madness of bubbles. Right up front, in fact, it describes the action of six stocks from March 1928 to September 1929. American Telephone and Telegraph, it says as a bit of a warning, went up 87%. Bethlehem Steel went up 146%. General Electric (with a starting price tag of $128!) soared 207%. Montgomery Ward went up 251%. National Cash Register jumped 150%. And Radio Corporation of America won top prize by surging 434%. The book, of course, paints this as bad news. Each of those stocks, after all, came crashing down. But focusing solely on the "end price" is a dangerous idea. Bad news, after all, merely depends on the timeline. Each of our personal "stories" ends quite sadly... sorry. But our lives must not be defined by their final chapter. More Profitable Logic That's a key idea for investors - especially these days. It represents a drastic change in logic for many investors. They're just now realizing that in a world of free money, insane politics and zero interest rates, the idea of "buy and hold" is really just "buy and pray." We all pray the system holds steady. Malkiel and his logic would look down on the "fool" (his word) who bought General Electric at $150... even if he sold it for $225 just months later. He'd say the fellow who bought shares of RCA after it doubled has lost touch with reality. But is a "buy and hold" dollar worth more than a speculative dollar? The answer, of course, comes down to risk and timeline. Malkiel made a well-deserved name for himself in the pages that follow those opening few chapters. He described a thorough, practical, long-term portfolio strategy. But nowhere in the book does he describe the market-rattling effects of zero interest rates... helicopter money... or, perhaps most glaringly, the advent of the digital age that has reshaped the efficient market. It's why I'm tired of the word "bubble." The lazy minds of the financial press drag it out anytime their "logic" strays from reality. But they fail to see we're trading and investing within one big bubble. The dollar... the idea of American dominance... even the companies atop the leaderboard today will come and go. Again, it all depends on our timeline. The store we're sitting in front of today is filled with shoppers. But, yes, someday it will close its doors. They all do. But should we stay away because of it? Of course not. Instead, we wisely track who is coming... who is going... and how much they're buying. When we do that - using our oh-so-simple pal volume - we need not worry about bubbles and the fools who create them. We simply get in... get out... and move to the next store. Right now... crypto is the busiest game in town. That's good enough for me. I'm as bullish as it gets. Be well, Andy P.S. For my latest research on crypto and details on the three coins I believe will be the winners in the "Year of Crypto," click here. And if you're looking to get started with cryptos but don't know how... our in-depth how-to guide is the place to start. All the details of how to claim your copy are here. |
No comments:
Post a Comment