What Is to Be Done? First, the bad news. When optimism and valuations are this high, don't expect much from the U.S. stock market over the coming years. It took the Nasdaq until 2015 before it recovered to levels it last saw in 2000 at the peak of the dot-com boom. What you should not do is sell everything and go to cash. Calling the week, month or quarter of a market top is a mug's game. Let me share three strategies that I am using in my portfolio. 1) Add to My "Hold Forever" Portfolio I own a group of stocks that I expect to hold "forever." I view these stocks as illiquid as I do my real estate investments. This approach helps me to disassociate psychologically from their daily gyrations. That said, I use periodic sharp market drops to add to these positions strategically. I identify those times using the CNN Fear & Greed Index. Once the index drops below 20, I grit my teeth and add to my "hold forever" stocks. But you must be patient. Buying opportunities like this happen once or twice a year. 2) Invest in the Market's Most Hated Stocks If I have the cash to invest in stocks, I invest a chunk of my portfolio in the most hated stocks in the market. How do I identify these stocks? To start, I look for stocks or sectors that are down at least 80% from their peaks. That's why I bought sectors like energy and travel and cruise lines back in April. And I've already more than doubled my money on many of these bets. 3) Go Global The past decade has been all about U.S. stocks. Vanguard estimates that U.S. stocks have trounced international markets by eight percentage points per year on average over the past 10 years. U.S. tech stocks have been responsible for much of the market's performance. And returns for foreign investors in the U.S. were also boosted by the soaring U.S. dollar. No wonder most Americans hate the idea of global investing. Now, I don't have a crystal ball. But I do know my history. With U.S. stocks being the most expensive in the world... And emerging market stocks breaking out to highs not seen since 2007... Now is an excellent time to grit your teeth and go global. Good investing, Nicholas |
No comments:
Post a Comment