Why You Should Take Notice of the Fed’s Big Red Flag

The Fed's Big Red Flag,
and Why You Should Take Notice


Dear Economy & Markets Subscriber,

Every six weeks the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets to decide whether a change in policy is needed to coax our economy in the right direction. They wrapped up their latest meeting on Wednesday. When Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered his policy statement, stocks bounced and Treasury yields fell sharply.

(Keep in mind the Fed has a Congressional mandate to provide maximum employment and stable prices. It accomplishes this goal primarily by manipulating interest rates.)

According to Powell, interest rates aren't helping or hindering economic growth. The jobs market is strong, and inflation is near the Fed's 2% target. Everything seems just about right. So, the Fed is now looking for signs of a slowdown, even though they aren't expecting one.

What caught investors' attention was the Fed's change in projections. Back in December, the Fed expected to hike twice: one in 2019 and another in 2020. But now the Fed isn't projecting any rate hikes in 2019.

Why the change of heart?

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