Las Vegas without the free drinks

Bill Bonner’s Diary

Las Vegas Without the Free Drinks

By Bill Bonner

Tuesday, March 2, 2021

A system… contrived (in the Treasury Department) for deluging the states with paper-money instead of gold and silver, for withdrawing our citizens from the pursuits of commerce, manufactures, buildings, and other branches of useful industry to occupy themselves and their capitals in a species of gambling…

– Thomas Jefferson’s letter to George Washington, March 1, 1792, during the Panic of 1792, after the formation of the First Bank of the United States

Bill Bonner

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Jefferson was right. But it took more than 200 years for the dagger he saw coming to reach the heart.

And now, it is here.

Commerce, manufactures, and other useful industries are in decline. The U.S. economy grew more than 5% per year during the Kennedy-Johnson years.

In Trump’s term, the growth rate was only 1.25% – the lowest since the Great Depression. 

New Era

But gambling is more popular than ever.

And now, the stock market – previously a place to discover the real values of America’s useful industries – is now a huge casino, like Las Vegas without the free drinks, where companies that might be worth zero are valued at billions of dollars.

How come?

Because the country has been deluged with paper money. Easy money. Fast money. Fake money. Stimmy money. 

There, too, Donald Trump is a record-setter.

While he was president, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet – which rises as the Fed “prints” more “paper” money – rose more than three times as fast as under George W. Bush and more than twice as fast as during the reign of Barack Obama.

Not surprisingly, U.S. debt increased faster, too.

[Featured: Urgent briefing about China's next move]

During the Clinton years, the national debt rose at an annual average of about $200 billion. It rose three times faster under George W. Bush… five times faster under Obama… and 10 times faster under Trump.

All of which makes us wonder… What kind of hallucinations were the folks at CPAC, the Conservative Political Action Conference, suffering when they bowed down before the graven image of Donald Trump?

He is the least conservative of any president – Democrat or Republican – in history (setting aside, perhaps, FDR).

Oh yes… we forgot… it’s TPAC now. Conservatives are history. It’s a new era.

And it doesn’t matter what you think… what you say… or who you vote for – this sucker is going down.

Recommended Link

Bill Bonner: Shadow-Banned?

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Have America's top booksellers refused to carry Bill Bonner's final book?

You won't find new copies of Win-Win or Lose at Barnes & Noble… and not a single copy is floating around on eBay.

In fact, the only used copy we could find was going for $79 on Amazon.

Which is why Bill recently authorized us to take drastic steps to put a copy in your hands essentially free – as part of this limited time offer.

To claim yours, click here
 

Going Down

But wait… Maybe if we all pull together…

From a dear reader comes a practical question. What if we really did try to pay off the federal debt?

“As for the debt of our country,” asks Annette A., “what if everyone in this country gave $1 to $5 dollars on the principal of our debt every year? I really don’t know how many people live in the U.S., but it is a lot. How many years would it take? If this is done, I know that many rich people would give more than $5.”

Well, let’s see. If each American adult pitched in $5… every year… how long would it take to pay off $28 trillion in debt?

Hmmm…. We have the answer: 21,937 years! Or, approximately, until Hell freezes over.

And that’s only if the feds stop adding more debt… which ain’t going to happen.

Which is why we need the full George W. Bush insight. “If the money supply doesn’t loosen up,” said he, “this sucker will go down.”

[Featured: ATTN. Gold Owners — Major Announcement]

Loosen Up

That’s what happens. At first, as Hemingway noted, inflating the money supply produces a little “temporary prosperity.”

But then, if you stop inflating, the pseudo prosperity disappears… and the sucker goes down.

This is the same trap that faced Rudolf von Havenstein in Germany… Gideon Gono in Zimbabwe… Celestino Rodrigo in Argentina… Delcy Rodríguez in Venezuela… and now, Jerome Powell in the U.S.

It’s inflate or die.

Each administration, naturally, wants more prosperity… even if it is temporary. So it needs to “loosen up” the money supply a little more.

That’s why the Fed’s real interest rate (charged to member banks) was below zero for all but a couple of quarters over the last 10 years.

And this leads to an even greater dependence on the deluge of paper money… and sets the nation up for an eventual catastrophe.

Here’s Yahoo! Finance last month:

Nearly 7 in 10 Americans in a Quinnipiac University poll said they support President Biden's $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief plan.

And here’s the Bank of America, warning that unless the Fed loosens up more… now… the sucker is going down again. From Business Insider:

Last week’s spike in interest rates has Bank of America analysts on edge about a potential stock market crash.

In a note on Friday, the bank highlighted the historic yield spike in mortgage-backed securities [MBS] and compared the current environment to 1987, when a continued jump in MBS yields preceded a stock market crash of more than 20%.

In 1987, an interest rate shock in April was followed by further rate increases that ultimately led to the October stock market crash, BofA said.

[…]

“Unless Fed fights back very soon with more treasury/MBS purchases, a similar fate likely lies ahead,” BofA warned.

Wrong Choices

Once a heavy object begins rolling down a steep hill, it doesn’t stop until it smashes into something.

It doesn’t matter what you say or what you think. As it rolls downhill, it gathers momentum, making it more and more dangerous to try to stop it.

And then you get dunderheads like George W. Bush, Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and Jerome Powell shoving it along even faster.

We’re used to thinking that things are under our control… that if only “they” would do the right thing… make the right choices… we could avert disaster.

Maybe.

But once you’ve made the wrong choices for a long time, it’s almost impossible to make the right ones. The momentum is against you.

Regards,

signature

Bill


Like what you’re reading? Send your thoughts to feedback@rogueeconomics.com.


FEATURED READ

America’s Top Economic Voices Disagree on Newly Proposed Wealth Tax
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren is back in the spotlight, proposing a new wealth tax for America’s ultra-rich. But she’s receiving pushback from colleagues… including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen…

MAILBAG

A dear reader sympathizes with Bill’s ongoing originario conflict… and another makes a parallel to the U.S…

We Argentines are used to these originarios’ claims to land that doesn’t belong to them, with a really wonky version to their rights as ancestral owners. It’s full of crap. They never had anything.

In any case, the Peruvians’ Incas could make a case, but ceased to exist four centuries ago. Similar cases upended by our third-class government are made farther south, in the cold Patagonia region, by made-up Mapuches, a longer, non-existing tribe.

– Jose F.

Regarding the Diaguitas, as we have learned in the USA, facts do not matter. The law does not matter. Just call them “alternate facts.” And even if the court rules against the Diaguitas 60 times, they can still keep propagating the lie, which will result in social unrest.

– Mort S.

And finally, another dear reader offers a correction…

Dear Bill, I’m a regular reader of your Diary and really enjoy your writing and approach to life. For me, it’s a gentle reminder of things I need to work on until I can be a master of my own time.

Just a friendly note from a Spanish-speaking guy: We use both last names (father’s and mother’s) when identifying ourselves. The family name is the father’s last name. The mother’s is used the way Americans use the middle name, an additional piece of information in case someone has your same name and last name. Kind regards from Colombia.

– Jaime M.

In what ways does the Diary add value to your life, as Jaime says? Write us at feedback@rogueeconomics.com.

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