| By Bill Bonner Tuesday, October 27, 2020 – Week 33 of the Quarantine SAN MARTIN, ARGENTINA – With only seven days to go to the presidential election, investors are getting edgy. Yesterday, the Dow sold off by as much as 900 points, before bouncing back to end the day down 650 points. What’s the trouble? Party On Hold For one thing, people look up at the sky. They crane their necks and strain their eyes… But, what ho! Where are the helicopters? Where is the bailout money… the filthy lucre… the counterfeit cash… the handout? Alas, Bloomberg reports that the party will have to wait: Stimulus Hopes Put On Hold Until After Election as Senate Leaves The free money seems to have gotten held up in partisan politics. Donald Trump said he is willing to go along with any bailout boondoggle… no matter how ridiculous. But the Democrats seem to be running down the clock, hoping voters are in a sour mood when they decide whether or not to leave The Donald in office for another four years. Connecting the Dots And investors are beginning to connect the dots. Not only is the money – unearned and undeserved – not fluttering down from helicopters… neither is it rising up from the ground. In a healthy economy, that’s where it comes from – from the ground up… from working, saving, and investing… from self-discipline, innovation, sweat, and toil. Real money is earned, in other words. It represents real increases to the nation’s wealth. But making real money has become more and more difficult. As we pointed out yesterday, neither the coronavirus nor the lockdown recession show any signs of going away. As for the former, the media is reporting a “record” number of cases in the U.S. Here’s The Washington Post: More than 42,000 people were hospitalized nationally with the virus Monday, a figure that is steadily climbing toward the midsummer peak caused by massive outbreaks in the Sun Belt. In the places hit the hardest, this is nudging hospitals toward the nightmare scenario of rationing care. The country is not there yet, but the recent rise in confirmed coronavirus infections – which set a single-day record Saturday of more than 83,000 – is an ominous leading indicator of an imminent surge of patients into hospitals. The pattern of this pandemic has been clear: Infections go up, hospitalization rates follow in a few weeks, and then deaths spike. Do You Know About "Tech Royalty" Investing? Hong Kong Flu In years past – 1968, to be precise – a major new virus came and went… Nobody paid much attention. The Hong Kong flu killed about the same proportion of the U.S. population – less than 0.1% – as the coronavirus… But life went on mostly as normal. Your editor had the ailment. He was only 20 years old. He recovered quickly, as did most people who had it. Just like the coronavirus. Tragedy and Failure But that was then. This is now. And now, every breeze threatens to bring a fatal affliction. Every pain is an early sign of impending death. And every case of coronavirus is a tragedy… and a failure. We live in a secular society. We have our doubts about promises of everlasting life from God Himself; but we’re damned sure the feds should protect us from the coronavirus. Which is why one of Joe Biden’s key campaign themes is that Donald Trump failed to do so. Would fewer have died from the virus in a Biden presidency? There’s no reason to think so. Governments – whether run by Democrats or Republicans, the French or the Germans, in North America or in South America – can’t really protect you from tropical storms, personal bankruptcy, love affairs gone bad… or the coronavirus. (The media delights in telling us how many lies and misleading facts come from the mouth of the president. But we have not seen one single report mentioning that Biden’s claim – that Donald Trump “let 200,000 Americans die” – is claptrap.) | Recommended Link | The Plot Against Trump's America A very serious threat to the Trump administration is on the way, and some Americans are going to get caught in the middle of this mess. You could be one of them. Millions of people could stand to lose a lot of money… especially if you own stocks, bonds, annuities, or life insurance. Understand, this man is not a prepper or a "doom and gloomer." After studying mathematics and philosophy at one of the most exclusive schools in America, he was employee No. 2 at a tech startup during the '90s internet boom. He went on to become a part of one of the most successful internet media companies in America. But today, he needs to share a message with every American he can. Because he's caught wind of a big move against Trump. One that's going to cause massive problems in our financial system. One that could change your life in irreversible ways. | | | -- | Live for Tomorrow The other big change since 1968 is that the people who shrugged off the Hong Kong flu, like your editor, are now half a century older. Were it not for medical advances over the last 50 years, many of them would already be in their graves (including your editor). And now, these people – who were so “La, la, la, live for today” 50 years ago – want the feds to make sure they live for tomorrow… …even if it means putting the whole country under house arrest. The One Big Threat You Face on November 3rd. Falling Into Place Yes, we are all beginning to see how these puzzle pieces fit together. The old and the rich are afraid to go out and spend money. Young people have fewer jobs and less income. We saw yesterday that long-term unemployment is rising. It’s not hard to see why… Small businesses are giving up. Restaurants are closing – permanently. Air traffic… and the whole cluster of travel, hostelry, hospitality, and entertainment… is down 30% to 50%, with no revival in sight. Business profits fall. Jobs become scarce. The rich (who are not spending… while still enjoying stock market gains) get richer. The poor get even poorer. Feds to the Rescue The feds fly to the rescue with jackass programs. The number of zombie workers… and zombie businesses – all supported by zombie money – increases, making it even harder for genuine, real economic growth. Tax revenues fall as expenditures rise. What can the feds do but “print” even more of the zombie money? This formula – wreck the real economy with wars, lockdowns, controls, excess spending, and pernicious incentives… and then try to shore up what is left with “printing press” money – is a classic. It’s been used for centuries to ruin great empires… as well as small sh*thole countries. Rich countries as well as poor ones. European nations as well as African and Latin American ones. It never fails. We doubt it will let us down this time. Regards, Bill
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FEATURED READS Despite Third-Quarter GDP Growth, U.S. Economy Still in Trouble
The United States’ GDP data will be released on October 29. It is expected to show significant third-quarter growth. That sounds like good news. But The Brookings Institution takes a deep dive into why the U.S. economy is still in trouble… What We Can Learn From Traveling
Bill’s colleague Dave Forest, a metals expert and world-renowned geologist, has traveled extensively throughout his 20-year career. Today, he shares four life lessons he’s learned while on the road… MAILBAG A dear reader thinks it’s too early to call a Biden-Harris presidential victory… I fear that you are premature in your declaration for a Biden-Harris victory. The victory you should be wishing for is restoration of an impartial and responsible press. That is the only sunshine or disinfectant of transparency that will allow a restoration of good governance. – Tom C. Other dear readers come to the defense of Donald Trump today, following Bill’s analysis of Trump’s presidential record and Monday’s essay, “A Triumph for Democracy”… Bill, you are wise in economic matters and regarding the Deep State. I agree with the fact our president and Republicans have caved to the demands to “print more money.” These stimulus checks sent our national debt to levels we may never be able to repay. But you are disrespectful calling our president a “big-mouthed oaf.” Last week, your case against him was devoid of his accomplishments and his willingness to stand up to the Deep State, and the establishment in general, despite how they have tried to take him down for the past four years. Some of your colleagues (I get eight newsletters) early on predicted he would fold with most of the media and all of the Democrats against him, nit picking at him from the day he came into office. Countless lies come over NBC, MSNBC, CNN, ABC, and NPR even now, yet he has bucked them and fired back. Give him credit for this, at least. And some of us out here who subscribe to your newsletter see even more cause to HOPE for four more years with him, rather than cave in to the radical socialism on the Democrats’ agenda. – Greg B. If Sleepy Joe wins, it definitely will NOT be a “Triumph for Democracy”! Why you are so down on Trump, a president who has fulfilled almost every campaign promise (in spite of farcical impeachment trials and fake scandals from the Left and mainstream media), is beyond me! This president has done more for putting America and her people first than any other since Reagan (but you probably didn’t like him either!). He’s not a sleazy, power-hungry, money-grubbing career politician like Biden and most other politicians are. And that is why TRUE Americans love him! – Patricia K. Who do you think will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election? If it’s not a Joe Biden win, what would be a “triumph for democracy”? Write us at feedback@rogueeconomics.com. IN CASE YOU MISSED IT… Even if You Don't Read Dirty Magazines… Here's one time you should've… In 1981, a dirty magazine published an article that had the potential to make its readers filthy rich. They interviewed the author of Microcosm in 1990, Life After Television in 1994, and Telecosm in 2002. Each one of these books issued predictions of new tech that took the world by storm and would have gotten you ahead of the millions of people investing in them. Today, this same author has a new book and wrote: "The next paradigm could impact over $16.8 trillion in the world economy. And you could get very rich as it does." Click here to learn how to get a copy of this book showing you the companies that could make you fortunes.
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